Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence recently signed a colossal five-year, $275 million contract extension, catapulting him into the ranks of the NFL’s highest-paid players. This landmark deal, however, arrived just before a challenging and injury-riddled 2024 season, leading some experts to question his trajectory and label him as having the “most to prove” heading into 2025.
Once hailed as a “generational prospect,” Lawrence’s fourth NFL season saw a significant decline in performance compared to his promising 2022 and 2023 campaigns. Battling inconsistency and uncharacteristic turnovers, his statistics dipped to career lows since his rookie year under Urban Meyer. He completed a career-worst 60.6% of his passes for just 2,045 yards, throwing 11 touchdowns against 7 interceptions over 10 games before his season was cut short.
Expert analysis from Pro Football Focus (PFF) reflected this downturn. Lawrence’s overall PFF grade dropped notably, ranking him 19th among quarterbacks in 2024, a step down from his top 15 rankings in the previous two seasons. PFF evaluator Zoltán Buday specifically pointed to the 2024 performance as his weakest since entering the league.
Injury Impact Defined 2024 Season
Beyond performance dips, availability became a major concern for the first time in Lawrence’s career. After playing over 1,000 snaps in each of his first three seasons, he was limited to just 536 in 2024.
His injury woes began with a significant left shoulder (AC joint) injury that caused him to miss two games. Although he and the team initially deferred surgery, he returned to action. Tragically, in his return game against the Houston Texans, Lawrence suffered a brutal hit to the head while sliding. The hit resulted in his arms going into the “fencing position,” a concerning sign often indicative of a traumatic brain injury. This was his second concussion in less than a year, following one in December 2023.
Ultimately, the concussion forced the Jaguars to place Lawrence on injured reserve, effectively ending his season after just 10 games. Reports indicate he is likely to undergo surgery for the shoulder injury he sustained earlier in the season.
Pressure Mounts After Massive Investment
The timing of the lucrative $275 million extension, signed before this difficult season, has only intensified the scrutiny. While the Jaguars’ front office has shown support, signing such a massive deal right before a major statistical and availability setback places immense pressure on Lawrence to rebound swiftly.
His standout 2022 season, where he earned Pro Bowl honors and led the Jaguars to a memorable playoff comeback win, is now viewed as the standard he must consistently achieve to justify the financial commitment and elite status.
Despite the recent struggles, there’s optimism for a turnaround. PFF identifies Lawrence as a prime “bounce-back candidate” for the 2025 season. Under new first-year head coach Liam Coen, he’s expected to benefit from a talented offensive roster, including what PFF calls “one of the most exciting young wide receiver duos in the NFL” in Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter.
However, Lawrence’s current PFF ranking stands at No. 16, placing him in “Tier 3b” – described as “solid starters, but they need more help.” This assessment highlights the gap between his current performance level and that of the league’s unquestioned elite.
For Trevor Lawrence, the 2025 season represents a critical juncture. With the security of his contract and the addition of new coaching and talent, he faces the ultimate test: proving he can consistently perform at an elite level, move past the injury concerns, and shed the label of having the “most to prove” to solidify his place among the NFL’s top quarterbacks.
