Four years into what many anticipated would be a swift Russian conquest, Ukraine has steadfastly defied expectations, transforming a predicted land grab into a protracted and complex geopolitical struggle. The global community, initially bracing for Ukraine’s rapid collapse, now observes a nation demonstrating extraordinary resolve. This unexpected resistance poses a profound question for Moscow: What is Vladimir Putin’s strategy now, as his military advances falter and the human cost escalates dramatically?
Defying Expectations: Ukraine’s Unwavering Resolve
When Russia launched its full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022, most military experts and intelligence agencies, including those from the U.S. and Britain, projected a rapid Russian victory. Given Russia’s significantly larger population, vastly superior GDP, and overwhelming military might in tanks, artillery, missiles, and warplanes, a quick Ukrainian capitulation seemed inevitable. Russian leadership, including Putin himself, even believed their troops might be welcomed. Yet, Ukraine’s unyielding stand has rewritten this grim prognosis.
A primary driver of Ukraine’s sustained resistance is its remarkably high morale. Despite immense casualties, the will to fight for survival remains resolute among Ukrainian forces. The sentiment, echoed across the nation, is simple yet powerful: “We have no choice but to fight if we want to survive.” This contrasts sharply with the apparent motivation of Russian soldiers, who do not perceive a comparable existential threat to their homeland. This fundamental difference in stakes profoundly bolsters Ukrainian determination, reminiscent of historical conflicts where higher purpose fueled resistance.
Ukrainian civilians, too, have endured unimaginable hardships. The brutal winters, particularly 2022-23 and the subsequent year, saw Russia repeatedly targeting Ukraine’s electricity grid. Thousands of drones and missiles struck cities and power stations, plunging millions into darkness and depriving them of heat and water. The United Nations Human Rights Monitoring Mission confirms at least 14,999 civilian deaths and over 40,600 injuries since the invasion, with 2025 marking the deadliest year for civilians since 2022, showing a disturbing 31% increase in casualties.
The Brutal Calculus of Attrition: Casualties and Costs
The human cost of this grinding conflict is staggering. Estimates suggest up to 1.8 million soldiers on both sides have been killed, wounded, or gone missing. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) reported Russia alone suffered 1.2 million casualties, including up to 325,000 troop deaths, between February 2022 and December 2025. This figure represents the largest number of troop deaths for any major power in any conflict since World War II. While Russia has been opaque with its casualty figures, Ukraine has also suffered grievously, with CSIS estimating 500,000 to 600,000 military casualties and up to 140,000 deaths. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently cited a lower figure of 55,000 Ukrainian troop deaths, with many more missing. Independent verification remains a significant challenge, as neither side provides transparent, timely data on military losses.
Beyond personnel, the material destruction has been immense. Geolocated tallies indicate roughly 24,000 pieces of Russian equipment have been destroyed, damaged, abandoned, or seized—a scale of loss no one, least of all Putin, anticipated.
A New Kind of War: Drone Dominance and Deep Strikes
The battlefield dynamics have been fundamentally reshaped by drone technology. Ukraine’s innovative use of drones has effectively thwarted Russia’s preferred strategy of concentrating armored brigades for large-scale breakthroughs. In this drone-dominated environment, conventional maneuver warfare has become suicidal, trapping both sides in a costly war of attrition. While this limits Ukraine’s ability to mass forces for major offensives, Ukraine maintains a crucial qualitative edge in drone technology, often thanks to ingenious, tech-savvy civilians working in makeshift facilities. These unmanned weapons now account for an estimated 60-70% of casualties.
Russian commanders have adapted, deploying small groups of dismounted infantry to infiltrate Ukrainian lines and using non-armored vehicles—even motorbikes, donkeys, and horses—to deliver supplies and minimize armored vehicle losses.
Ukraine has also capitalized on deep strikes, relentlessly using drones and increasingly, domestically produced missiles like the Long Neptune and Flamingo models. These have targeted distant Russian command posts, airfields, and ammunition depots, disrupting logistics chains. More than half of Russia’s major refineries have been hit at least once, reducing capacity and causing gasoline shortages, price hikes, and long lines in parts of Russia. Furthermore, Ukraine’s sea drones and anti-ship missiles have significantly curtailed Russia’s Black Sea fleet. Since sinking the flagship Moskva in April 2022, Ukraine has destroyed some two dozen Russian ships, forcing the fleet to relocate its headquarters from Sevastopol in annexed Crimea to Novorossiysk on the Black Sea’s east coast.
Stalled Advances: Russia’s Limited Territorial Gains
Despite Russia’s vast numerical superiority, its territorial gains have been remarkably minimal, particularly in the past year. Since 2024, Russia’s maximum average daily territorial advances have been a mere 70 meters, with monthly casualties averaging nearly 35,000 last year. After capturing Avdiivka in February 2024, Russia gained only 1.5% of Ukrainian territory and did not take another large town until February of the current year. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russia currently occupies 19.4% of Ukrainian land, but gained a paltry 0.79% in the last year, highlighting the grinding, costly nature of the conflict. To achieve its stated goal of annexing the remainder of Donbas, Russia would face the daunting and bloody prospect of urban warfare in heavily fortified conurbations like Slavyansk, Kramatorsk, and Kostyantynivka. Despite ample firepower and an economy that is not collapsing, Russia’s army performance has been described as “shambolic.”
Manpower Challenges on Both Sides
While the Western press has extensively covered Ukraine’s troop shortages and draft-dodging, the narrative that Russia’s much larger population guarantees abundant manpower is increasingly misleading. Russia faces its own significant manpower challenges. It has increasingly resorted to recruiting foreign fighters from Africa, Cuba, Central Asia, India, and Nepal, and has even enlisted thousands of North Korean troops. To incentivize enlistment, Moscow pays soldiers lavish signing bonuses and salaries, indicating a hidden strain on its military personnel, intensified by ongoing economic pressures.
Putin’s Shifting Demands and Ukraine’s Firm Rejection
Vladimir Putin initially defined victory as the conquest of four Ukrainian provinces: Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. Of these, only Luhansk is fully under Russian control. In a significant shift, Putin has reportedly proposed a deal, contingent on Ukraine handing over the rest of Donetsk. This pivot suggests Putin may be realizing that his generals’ reports of widespread territorial “liberation” are largely “eyewash.” Western accounts, too, sometimes inadvertently perpetuate these exaggerations by presuming the accuracy of Russian claims about controlling certain areas.
However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, supported by a significant 75% of war-weary Ukrainians, firmly rejects any political settlement that involves ceding territory Russia has failed to seize militarily. This unwavering stance persists even amidst calls from international figures, including Donald Trump, for such concessions.
The Evolving Landscape of International Support
The crucial international support for Ukraine has seen significant shifts. Foreign military aid to Kyiv dropped by 13% last year compared to the annual average between 2022 and 2024, largely due to the U.S. (under the Trump administration) halting further weapon shipments. In response, European countries increased their military aid by 67% last year, striving to compensate for the American reduction. Overall foreign humanitarian and financial aid also saw a 5% decrease in the past year. This fluctuating landscape of international assistance directly impacts Ukraine’s operational capacity and its ability to sustain its defense.
The Broader Humanitarian Crisis and Future Outlook
The war has triggered an immense humanitarian crisis. Approximately 5.9 million Ukrainian civilians have fled their country, with 5.3 million seeking refuge in Europe. Additionally, an estimated 3.7 million Ukrainians are internally displaced within the country, all from a pre-war population exceeding 40 million. The healthcare system has also suffered devastating blows, with the World Health Organization (WHO) documenting 2,881 Russian attacks affecting medical care provision since the full-scale invasion – a nearly 20% increase in such attacks in 2025 compared to 2024. These figures include at least 2,347 strikes specifically on healthcare facilities.
As the conflict enters its fifth year, no clear end is in sight. Ukraine’s unexpected resilience has frustrated Russia’s strategic ambitions, turning an intended quick victory into a protracted, devastating quagmire. The profound human cost, the innovative yet brutal battlefield tactics, and the shifting geopolitical dynamics continue to define Europe’s largest conflict since World War II. Understanding these complexities is crucial as the world watches to see how Putin, faced with such defiance, will navigate his increasingly challenging dilemma.
Frequently Asked Questions
What key factors explain Ukraine’s unexpected resilience against Russia?
Ukraine’s unexpected resilience stems from a combination of factors. Foremost is the unwavering morale and will to fight for national survival among its population and military, directly contrasting with Russia’s less clear motivations. Innovative adoption of drone warfare, often driven by tech-savvy civilians, has also neutralized Russia’s conventional armored superiority. Furthermore, Ukraine’s effective deep strikes against Russian logistics and naval assets, coupled with significant, though fluctuating, international military and financial support, have allowed it to sustain defense efforts far beyond initial global predictions.
Where has Russia made its most significant, albeit limited, territorial gains in Ukraine recently?
Despite immense costs, Russia’s recent territorial gains have been notably minimal. After capturing Avdiivka in February 2024, Russia gained only about 1.5% of Ukrainian territory and did not seize another large town until February of the current year. Overall, in the past year, Russia has gained only 0.79% of Ukraine’s territory. Its advances have been limited to a mere 70 meters per day on average in key offensives. Russia’s strategic focus remains on annexing the rest of the Donbas region, targeting areas like Slavyansk, Kramatorsk, and Kostyantynivka, which are heavily fortified and would require costly urban warfare.
How has international military aid to Ukraine evolved, and what are the implications for the conflict?
International military aid to Ukraine has seen significant fluctuations. In the past year, foreign military aid decreased by 13% compared to the 2022-2024 average, primarily due to the U.S. (under the Trump administration) pausing further weapon shipments. To compensate, European countries substantially increased their military aid by 67% during the same period. This shift underscores the dynamic nature of global support and its direct impact on Ukraine’s ability to defend itself. While European efforts have partially offset the U.S. reduction, the overall decrease in foreign humanitarian and financial aid (down 5%) indicates a broader challenge in maintaining consistent, comprehensive international assistance for Ukraine.
