International Fight Week is heating up! UFC 317 descends upon the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday, June 28th, delivering a stacked card featuring not one, but two championship bouts. Headlining this highly anticipated event is a massive clash for the vacant UFC Lightweight Title, as undefeated former featherweight king Ilia Topuria makes his full-time move to the 155-pound division against the division’s all-time finishes leader and former champion, Charles Oliveira.
But the lightweight title isn’t the only belt on the line. In the co-main event, dominant Flyweight Champion Alexandre Pantoja defends his strap against dangerous striker Kai Kara-France in a compelling rematch. With high stakes and thrilling matchups throughout the card, UFC 317 is poised to be a memorable night of fights.
Let’s break down the key bouts, analyze the matchups, and look at the betting odds and expert predictions.
UFC 317 Main Event: Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira (Vacant Lightweight Title)
This is the fight everyone is talking about. Ilia Topuria (16-0) makes the jump to lightweight after a dominant reign at featherweight, punctuated by spectacular knockout victories over legends like Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway. “El Matador” is known for his elite boxing, deceptive footwork, and truly fight-ending power – power that analysts believe will translate effectively to the lightweight division, as seen in his quick past finish of Jai Herbert at 155 pounds. Topuria boasts impressive striking defense, avoiding 64% of significant strikes, a testament to his technical soundness even while pushing forward.
Standing across from him is Charles Oliveira (35-10, 1 NC), a future UFC Hall of Famer and the sport’s most prolific finisher. Oliveira holds the UFC records for most finishes (20) and most submission wins (16). “Do Bronx” possesses world-class jiu-jitsu with a dangerous bottom game, allowing him to recover from trouble, but he has also developed a potent and versatile striking attack, capable of overwhelming opponents. Despite his incredible finishing ability, Oliveira has shown a tendency to get hurt or knocked down, even during his winning streaks, though he often displays remarkable resilience. His significant strike avoidance rate is lower than Topuria’s, sitting around 49%.
Matchup Analysis & Expert Predictions:
The consensus among many analysts favors Topuria in this clash. His precise, fast striking and defensive responsibility are seen as potentially overwhelming for Oliveira, who is sometimes susceptible to eating shots, particularly at close range. Experts like those at ESPN highlight Topuria’s technical boxing edge, while others note his ability to cut angles and find ways to “catch” opponents rather than just walking forward. Even Dustin Poirier has weighed in, suggesting Oliveira needs a specific strategy to approach Topuria.
While Oliveira’s “Swiss Army knife” skillset – combining dangerous striking, submission game, and wrestling – makes him a versatile threat, many believe Topuria’s speed and power will be the deciding factor. Predictions from sources like MMA Junkie and Forbes lean towards Topuria securing an early knockout or TKO, believing he can capitalize on Oliveira’s defensive lapses if the Brazilian fights in his typical aggressive style. Oliveira’s best path to victory is seen as either surviving early and finding a submission during a scramble or landing a big shot of his own, but Topuria’s defense makes the latter difficult.
Betting Odds & Insights:
As expected, Ilia Topuria enters the main event as a significant favorite, with odds ranging from -430 to -500 on the moneyline, depending on the sportsbook. Charles Oliveira is the underdog, listed between +320 and +360.
Betting Topuria straight on the moneyline requires laying down a large amount to win a small return. For those looking for more value, one analysis suggests betting on Ilia Topuria to win AND the fight to go Over 5.5 total minutes (-105). This prop bet acknowledges Topuria’s likelihood of winning while accounting for Oliveira’s toughness and the fact that Topuria’s recent finishes haven’t always come in the very first round. While both fighters are finishers, this bet offers better odds than a straight Topuria win, recognizing that Oliveira is unlikely to be an easy out in the opening minutes.
Main Event Prediction: Most signs point towards Ilia Topuria realizing his two-division champion ambitions. Expect him to weather any early storm from Oliveira and find his timing, utilizing his speed and power to overwhelm the former champ.
Prediction: Ilia Topuria via TKO.
UFC 317 Co-Main Event: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Kara-France (Flyweight Title)
In the co-main event, one of the sport’s most dominant champions defends his belt. Alexandre Pantoja (29-5), who many consider the most underrated fighter on Earth, looks for his fourth consecutive title defense. He faces a familiar foe in Kai Kara-France (25-11, 1 NC), a dangerous striking threat with significant knockout power. The two previously met back in 2016 on The Ultimate Fighter, with Pantoja securing a decision victory.
Matchup Analysis & Expert Predictions:
Alexandre Pantoja is a relentless force in the flyweight division. While known for his world-class grappling, scrambling ability, and top control – skills expected to be his primary advantage – his striking is also underrated, and he’s willing to engage in wars. Kara-France, training out of City Kickboxing, possesses excellent striking with solid boxing fundamentals and good defensive metrics, including high strike avoidance (65%) and stout takedown defense (88%).
However, Pantoja’s well-roundedness is the key difference. While Kara-France has a clear “puncher’s chance,” especially if he can keep the fight standing at range, Pantoja is adept at finding paths to the ground and controlling opponents. Analysts widely favor Pantoja, believing his superior grappling and pressure will ultimately wear down Kara-France.
Betting Odds & Insights:
Alexandre Pantoja is favored to retain his title, with odds ranging from -245 to -275. Kai Kara-France is the underdog, listed between +194 and +220. Given Pantoja’s dominance, a straight moneyline bet isn’t particularly lucrative. One interesting angle is a Kai Kara-France +5.5 Point Spread bet (+105), suggesting that even if Kara-France loses, he is capable of surviving the full five rounds and not getting dominated to the extent required for a wider point margin loss, offering value on the underdog’s resilience and striking defense. Another angle seen is betting the Over 3.5 Rounds (-130), acknowledging the title fight duration and both fighters’ ability to absorb damage.
Co-Main Event Prediction: Pantoja is arguably the most complete fighter at 125 pounds. While Kara-France is dangerous, Pantoja’s multi-faceted attack and grappling prowess are likely to be too much.
Prediction: Alexandre Pantoja via Submission or Decision.
Other Key Main Card Attractions
UFC 317 offers compelling matchups beyond the title fights, many with significant implications and potential for fireworks.
Brandon Royval vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight): This late-addition matchup is a strong contender for “Fight of the Night.” Brandon Royval (+100 to +105), a perennial top flyweight and former title challenger, is known for his chaotic, high-paced fights. He faces the rapidly rising prospect Joshua Van (-120 to -125), a 23-year-old with high volume striking (8.20 significant strikes landed per minute) and future champion potential. While Van is on a win streak, analysts are split on whether this is “too much, too soon” against Royval’s experience and high-level competition. Expect a fast-paced, back-and-forth battle that could potentially go the distance. The odds are razor-thin, making it a true pick’em fight.
Beneil Dariush vs. Renato Moicano (Lightweight): A rescheduled veteran lightweight clash with important career implications. Beneil Dariush (+100 to -102) returns after recent losses, reportedly having had extra time to recover. Renato Moicano (-110 to -120) is a dangerous opponent. Both fighters possess strong jiu-jitsu and continually improving striking. While Moicano isn’t typically a knockout artist, questions linger about Dariush’s chin after recent damage. Analysts see Dariush potentially “doing everything better” than Moicano and controlling aspects of the fight, potentially grinding out a decision similar to his win over Gamrot. The odds are incredibly close, reflecting the competitive nature of this bout.
Payton Talbott vs. Felipe Lima (Bantamweight): A classic “prospect war” that could steal the show. Payton Talbott (+150 to +165) is a powerful striker but showed vulnerability in the grappling department in his last fight. Felipe Lima (-180 to -200) is undefeated since his debut loss and is seen as well-rounded and smart enough to exploit Talbott’s grappling weaknesses while also being capable of impressive finishes on the feet. While Talbott has aggression and reach, Lima’s versatility makes him the favorite in this exciting bantamweight clash.
Preliminary Card Notables
The early and standard preliminary cards also feature intriguing bouts with potential for excitement and finishes. Keep an eye on:
Jack Hermansson vs. Gregory Rodrigues (Middleweight): A clash of styles as striker Rodrigues (-230 to -235) takes on the durable grappler Hermansson (+184 to +190). Predictions are split, hinting at a competitive fight.
Terrance McKinney vs. Viacheslav Borshchev (Lightweight): An explosive matchup where neither fighter is known for going the distance. Both are capable of quick knockouts, leading to high odds (-1000) that the fight won’t go to a decision. McKinney (-175) is favored for his ability to prevent opponents from finding rhythm.
Viviane Araujo vs. Tracy Cortez (Women’s Flyweight): A ranked flyweight bout with similar skill sets involving effective striking and takedowns, where control on the ground could be key. Cortez (-260) is favored.
- Niko Price vs. Jacobe Smith (Welterweight): Features one of the widest odds disparities on the card, with powerful striker/wrestler Smith (-2500 to -3000) being an overwhelming favorite against veteran Price (+1000 to +1040).
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Event Logistics
UFC 317 takes place on Saturday, June 28th, live from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The early preliminary card kicks off, followed by the preliminary card on ESPN and ESPN+. The main card is available exclusively on ESPN Pay-Per-View, with the main event cage walks anticipated around 12:25 a.m. ET on Sunday morning.
With two title fights and compelling matchups throughout the card, UFC 317 promises a night of high-stakes action as Ilia Topuria attempts to make history in the lightweight division against one of its most dangerous veterans.
