As the July 1st NHL free agency period rapidly approaches, one name dominates the conversation: Mitch Marner. After spending nine seasons with the Toronto Maple Leafs, the dynamic forward appears increasingly likely to explore his options on the open market, setting the stage for a high-stakes bidding war across the league.
Coming off a career-best 102-point regular season, the 28-year-old winger is projected to command one of the largest contracts available in free agency. While a return to Toronto isn’t entirely ruled out until a deal is signed, the betting odds and insider sentiment paint a clear picture: a departure from the Maple Leafs seems highly probable. Toronto’s odds have plummeted dramatically, signalling the widespread belief that Marner is poised for a fresh start, potentially seeking a “clean break” and a move to the Western Conference, according to reports citing teammate perspectives.
With Marner days away from UFA status, the betting market is buzzing, with several teams emerging as clear frontrunners.
The Betting Favorites
Betting odds from various sportsbooks offer a compelling look at which teams are seen as the most likely landing spots for the skilled playmaker.
Vegas Golden Knights
The Vegas Golden Knights have solidified their position as the distinct favorites in the Mitch Marner sweepstakes. After opening with longer odds, Vegas has seen its price dramatically shorten, reflecting significant market information and insider reports. Rumors of Marner and his wife house-hunting in Las Vegas and multiple insiders tagging the Golden Knights as the frontrunner around the league have fueled this shift.
While Vegas currently has limited cap space, the franchise is known for aggressive roster management. Moving a player like William Karlsson is seen as a potential path to create the necessary room without sacrificing valuable assets. Playing for a recent Stanley Cup champion like Vegas, alongside a top center like Jack Eichel, offers Marner an immediate opportunity to compete for a championship and potentially benefit from Nevada’s favorable state tax laws.
Anaheim Ducks
Rapidly emerging as a serious contender, the Anaheim Ducks have seen their odds significantly shorten leading up to free agency. The Ducks possess one of the deepest pools of projected cap space in the league, bolstered by the recent trade of forward Trevor Zegras. This financial flexibility positions them to make a substantial offer for a player of Marner’s caliber.
Anaheim’s ownership has publicly signaled a strong willingness to spend “what it takes” to end the team’s playoff drought and become a perennial contender, explicitly greenlighting the general manager to pursue “big-name free agents” without budget constraints. The team has already been active this offseason, hiring coach Joel Quenneville and acquiring veteran Chris Kreider. An aggressive pitch from GM Pat Verbeek, potentially exceeding the $14 million AAV mark, could accelerate Anaheim’s rebuild with a marquee signing.
Los Angeles Kings
Another Western Conference team firmly in the mix are the Los Angeles Kings. With a new, aggressive general manager in Ken Holland, the Kings are expected to make a significant move this offseason aimed at improving the team. The Kings offer a desirable market and are considered a borderline contender with sufficient cap space to table a competitive, potentially Draisaitl-level offer for Marner, even after addressing other roster needs like re-signing defenseman Vladislav Gavrikov.
Adding to the speculation is Marner’s existing connections within the Kings organization, including head coach Jim Hiller (a former Leafs assistant) and current players Drew Doughty, Quinton Byfield, and Warren Foegele, with whom Marner interacts at offseason training camps. The combination of cap space, location, and connections makes Los Angeles a compelling possibility.
Other Teams in the Mix
While Vegas, Anaheim, and Los Angeles appear to lead the charge based on current odds and reports, several other teams remain in the conversation.
The Carolina Hurricanes are consistently mentioned as a potential Eastern Conference destination if Marner opts to stay East. Despite some reports suggesting Marner may have previously ruled them out (perhaps due to personal reasons or commitment to Toronto at the time), the Hurricanes are expected to make another strong push. With significant cap space, a stable core of players signed long-term, and a system that could benefit from Marner’s offensive prowess, Carolina remains a viable, high-end suitor aiming to add the piece needed to get over the hump after recent playoff success.
The Utah Mammoth represent a potential dark horse candidate. As a developing team with substantial cap space and an owner keen to quickly improve the organization’s standing and perception among players, Utah has the financial ability to make a high offer. While not yet a contender, the possibility of joining a rapidly building team in a unique market could appeal to Marner.
The Salary Landscape
Mitch Marner is expected to command a contract likely in the $12 million to $14 million range annually, with some speculation suggesting potential offers could exceed that, particularly from teams like Anaheim or Los Angeles looking to make a splash. Accommodating such a salary will require significant cap management for any interested team, particularly those already close to the ceiling. The financial implications, coupled with potential state tax advantages offered by locations like Vegas or Florida (though the Panthers would require substantial maneuvering), will undoubtedly play a role in Marner’s decision.
As July 1st dawns, all eyes will be on Mitch Marner. The combination of shifting betting odds and persistent insider reports indicate his time in Toronto is likely ending, with the Vegas Golden Knights currently holding the edge as the betting favorite, closely followed by the aggressive Anaheim Ducks and the connected Los Angeles Kings in what is shaping up to be a fiercely competitive free agency period.
