Gadi Eisenkot Coalition Faces U.S. Aid Crisis in Israel

The Gadi Eisenkot coalition attempt begins at a moment of unprecedented diplomatic and domestic instability, as Israel struggles to reconcile a fractured parliament with a deteriorating alliance with its most vital partner, the United States. Following the general elections held on October 27, 2026, President Isaac Herzog granted the mandate to form a government to Gadi Eisenkot, the leader of the Yashar party and former IDF Chief of Staff. This move comes after no single political bloc—neither the incumbent Benjamin Netanyahu nor the opposition “change bloc”—managed to secure the 61-seat majority required to command the Knesset.

What happened: A nation in deadlock

On Tuesday, November 10, 2026, the newly elected parliament was officially sworn in, marking the beginning of a high-stakes period of political maneuvering. The election results left the country in a state of paralysis. While Gadi Eisenkot has secured significantly more parliamentary endorsements than his rival—67 lawmakers supporting him compared to 46 for Benjamin Netanyahu—endorsements do not automatically translate into a governing majority.

According to data from the NewsCord report, the seat distribution reveals a deeply divided electorate. The Yashar party, led by Eisenkot, holds 21 seats, while the B’Yachad party, a cooperation bloc led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, holds 12 seats. Together, this alignment provides a negotiating bloc of 33 seats. However, this is still far from the 61 needed to rule.

In contrast, Benjamin Netanyahu and his Likud party hold 27 seats. The political landscape is further complicated by the presence of Arab-led parties, which secured a historic high of 19 seats combined between The Joint List (11 seats) and the Ra’am party (8 seats).

As the consultation phase begins, the tension is palpable. Benjamin Netanyahu has publicly challenged the legitimacy of the results, claiming the election was “stolen” and “illegitimate.” However, reports from the Shin Bet and Israeli election authorities indicate that interference was limited and the results are valid. The political stalemate has left the country in a “consultation phase,” a period where leaders attempt to bridge ideological chasms to form a stable government.

Why it matters: The U.S. diplomatic rift

While the domestic struggle for power continues, a secondary, perhaps more existential, crisis is unfolding in Washington. The Gadi Eisenkot coalition must not only build a majority in the Knesset but also repair a relationship with the United States that many experts describe as broken.

According to reporting by the New York Times, the damage to the bilateral relationship is rooted in two primary areas: the devastating military campaign in Gaza and Israel’s role in escalating tensions with Iran. The latter has had direct economic consequences, with reports linking the pressure of a potential war with Iran to soaring global gas prices.

For the first time in history, Israel may find itself without its traditional political safety net in the United States. Michael Oren, a former Israeli ambassador to Washington and deputy prime minister under Netanyahu, noted the severity of the situation. “For the first time in the history of our relationship with the United States, we have no recourse,” Oren said. “We have to start from scratch. We have a lot of fence mending to do and with no guarantee of success. Zero.”

This diplomatic isolation is compounded by immediate threats to Israel’s security budget. President Trump announced this month that he intends to cut billions of dollars in annual U.S. military aid to Israel by the end of the year. Furthermore, Trump has blamed Israel, in part, for Republican losses in the recent midterm elections.

On the other side of the aisle, Democratic control of Congress presents a different set of challenges. If Democrats maintain their grip, they could implement sanctions on violent Israeli settlers and place new conditions on arms sales, particularly regarding settlement construction in the occupied West Bank. This dual pressure from both major U.S. parties places an immense burden on any incoming Israeli administration to provide a sense of stability and predictability.

The mathematical reality of the Knesset

To understand the difficulty facing Gadi Eisenkot, one must look at the specific breakdown of the 120 seats in the Knesset. The following table summarizes the key political players and their seat counts as of November 2026.

Political Party/Bloc	Primary Leader(s)	Seats Held
Yashar	Gadi Eisenkot	21
B’Yachad	Naftali Bennett & Yair Lapid	12
Likud	Benjamin Netanyahu	27
The Joint List	Arab-led	11
Ra’am	Mansour Abbas	8
United Torah Judaism	Haredi (Ultra-Orthodox)	7
Total		86 (Key Parties)

Note: The remaining seats are distributed among smaller parties and independents.

Deep-dive: The three paths to a majority

Gadi Eisenkot is currently exploring three distinct, yet highly problematic, paths to achieving the 61-seat threshold. Each path requires significant political concessions that could destabilize his own coalition.

Path 1: The Ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) Alliance

One option is to court the Haredi parties, specifically United Torah Judaism (UTJ), which holds 7 seats. While UTJ has signaled it may break from its traditional alliance with Netanyahu, an agreement would require Eisenkot to make major concessions on military conscription laws.

This is a volatile issue. The Haredi cohort is approximately 70,000 people annually, and the parties demand the right to maintain exemptions from service. However, members of the “change bloc,” such as Dan Illouz, have already vowed to oppose any government that compromises on conscription. Eisenkot has proposed a “realistic plan” where only 3% of Haredim receive exemptions, but this remains a point of intense friction.

Path 2: Cooperation with Arab Parties

Eisenkot could seek support from the 19 seats held by Ra’am and The Joint List. While Ra’am is considered a moderate player that has previously participated in non-Netanyahu coalitions, Eisenkot has set extremely high “redlines” for this path.

To join his government, any Arab party must explicitly recognize Hamas as a terrorist organization. Furthermore, Avigdor Liberman, a key figure in the Zionist opposition, has stated he will not support any government that relies on the support or even the abstention of Arab parties. This ideological divide makes cooperation with the Joint List or Ra’am a high-risk gamble.

Path 3: The National Unity Government

The most stable option would be a national unity government that includes both the “change bloc” and members of Netanyahu’s camp. However, this path is currently blocked by categorical rejections. Leaders like Eisenkot, Liberman, and Naftali Bennett have all publicly stated that the primary goal is to replace Netanyahu.

For a unity government to work, a “rotation” agreement would likely be necessary, where Netanyahu serves as Prime Minister for a set period before handing power to an opposition leader. So far, the change bloc has shown no willingness to accept such a deal, with Eisenkot stating, “There will be no form of rotation… There will be one prime minister, and that is me.”

Eisenkot’s Four Principles for Stability

To guide his negotiations, Gadi Eisenkot has outlined four non-negotiable principles that any party wishing to join his proposed “national emergency government” must accept. These principles are designed to ensure the government remains rooted in Zionist and democratic values:

1. Recognition of Israel as a Jewish and democratic state.
2. Acceptance of the values enshrined in Israel’s Declaration of Independence.
3. Mandatory military or civilian service for all citizens.
4. Explicit recognition of Hamas as a terrorist organization.

These redlines are intended to provide a clear framework for governance but also act as significant barriers to the very parties—the Haredim and the Arab parties—that Eisenkot might need to reach a majority.

Security, the West Bank, and the Iran Threat

Beyond the halls of the Knesset, Eisenkot is attempting to build a platform based on his identity as a former military leader. He has criticized the current administration’s handling of security, particularly the failures of October 7, 2023. He has called for an official state commission of inquiry to investigate the systemic negligence and lack of professionalism that allowed the attacks to occur.

His platform also includes a significant shift in how the West Bank is administered. Eisenkot has proposed returning the Civil Administration and police activity in the West Bank to military coordination, effectively stripping authority from far-right ministers who have pushed for increased settlement expansion.

This domestic security focus is shadowed by a massive regional threat. Eisenkot has identified Iran as Israel’s foremost strategic adversary, warning that the regime may race toward 90% uranium enrichment to produce a nuclear device. The period of political uncertainty in Israel is viewed by regional analysts as a high-risk window, as the lack of a stable government could trigger accidental or strategic military escalation with Tehran.

What It Means for You

The outcome of the Gadi Eisenkot coalition negotiations will have profound implications for various sectors of society:

• For Israeli Voters: You may face a period of continued political volatility. If no coalition is formed within the legal timeframe, the country could head toward another round of general elections, potentially in six months.
• For Business and Investors: The threat of losing billions in U.S. military aid and the economic uncertainty of a potential war with Iran could lead to market instability and fluctuations in the Israeli shekel.
• For Residents of the West Bank: A shift toward an Eisenkot government could mean a return to military-led administration and stricter enforcement of laws against violent settlers.
• For International Observers: The stability of the Middle East hinges on whether Israel can establish a unified leadership capable of managing the ongoing conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon while deterring Iran.

Counterpoints and Open Questions

While the momentum appears to be with the opposition, several significant risks remain. First is the “stolen election” narrative promoted by Netanyahu, which could fuel civil unrest and delegitimize the incoming government. Second is the internal fragility of the change bloc; as seen with Dan Illouz, the demand for total conscription reform may cause the coalition to fracture before it even forms.

Furthermore, an open question remains: can Eisenkot truly represent the “70% majority” he claims to seek? While he has the endorsements of many lawmakers, his strict redlines regarding Haredi and Arab participation may leave him with a government that is mathematically sufficient but socially divisive.

What Happens Next

All eyes are now on the negotiation tables in the Knesset. The timeline for resolution is as follows:

• The 28-Day Window: Eisenkot has a standard period of 28 days from the date he was tasked to form a coalition.
• The 14-Day Extension: If progress is being made but a deal is not yet finalized, President Herzog has the authority to grant a 14-day extension.
• The Decision Point: If no majority is reached within this 42-day window, the President may be forced to either task another candidate or dissolve the Knesset and call for new elections.

Watch for signals from the United Torah Judaism party regarding their stance on conscription and any movement from Naftali Bennett regarding a potential compromise with the Likud bloc.

As the political clock ticks, the success or failure of the Gadi Eisenkot coalition will determine not only the future of Israel’s domestic policy but also the stability of its most critical international alliance and its security standing in a volatile Middle East.

Frequently asked questions

How many seats are needed to form a government in Israel?

To form a stable government in the 120-seat Knesset, a party or coalition must secure a majority of at least 61 seats. Currently, no single bloc led by either Benjamin Netanyahu or Gadi Eisenkot has reached this threshold, resulting in the current political deadlock.

What are Gadi Eisenkot's four principles for a new government?

Gadi Eisenkot has established four specific requirements for any party wishing to join his coalition: they must recognize Israel as a Jewish and democratic state, uphold the values of the Declaration of Independence, accept mandatory military or civilian service, and recognize Hamas as a terrorist organization.

Why is the U.S.-Israel relationship currently strained?

The relationship is facing significant tension due to the military campaign in Gaza and concerns over Israel’s potential involvement in a war with Iran. These issues have led President Trump to threaten cuts to U.S. military aid and have caused many Americans to shift their views on Israel’s policies.

What is the main disagreement regarding Haredi military service?

The primary conflict involves the exemption of ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) citizens from military service. Eisenkot proposes a plan where only 3% of the Haredi population receives exemptions, whereas many Haredi leaders demand much broader exemptions, and some members of the opposition demand that all exemptions be abolished entirely.

References

• Gadi Eisenkot Charged With Forming Israel’s Coalition to Replace Benjamin Netanyahu: 5 outlets compared — newscord.org
• Eisenkot moves closer to ousting Netanyahu. Here’s what could come next. — jta.org
• Exclusive interview: Gadi Eisenkot lays out vision of change and repair for Israel — jpost.com
• Iranian Debate Over Israel Election: Netanyahu’s Grip, War Prospects, Likud and Eisenkot Blocs: 5 outlets compared — newscord.org
• The U.S.-Israel Relationship Is Broken. Here’s How Eisenkot Could Fix It. — nytimes.com

Featured image: Image via NewsCord