Apple’s near-term iPhone sales outlook might face headwinds, but analysts point to a significant rebound and robust growth in 2026. According to a recent investor note from JP Morgan, reported by AppleInsider, the upcoming iPhone 17 series may not achieve the sales momentum of its predecessor, the iPhone 16. However, the forecast shifts dramatically for the 2026 lineup, predicting ‘significant growth’ driven by key technological advancements finally arriving with the iPhone 18.
Why the iPhone 17 May See Softer Sales
Several factors contribute to the projected softer performance for the iPhone 17 family. One key element highlighted in the analyst note is the potential lack of compelling, must-have features. Specifically, the report points to the absence of:
Advanced generative AI capabilities: Apple’s current AI platform, “Apple Intelligence,” has faced criticism and perceived setbacks. Analysts suggest the company lags behind competitors like Google and OpenAI and may need significant acquisitions to accelerate its efforts. The full suite of advanced AI features users anticipate is not expected to be ready for the iPhone 17 launch.
Apple’s highly anticipated first foldable flagship: While development is reportedly underway, Apple’s entry into the foldable market is not anticipated until 2026.
Furthermore, the report suggests that prior buying behavior, potentially influenced by the fear of impending tariffs (like those discussed under the Trump administration), led to a surge of upgrades to the iPhone 16. This could mean fewer customers are ready for another upgrade cycle so soon. Reflecting this outlook, production forecasts for the iPhone 17 are already estimated to be 9 percent lower than the iPhone 16.
The Promise of the iPhone 18 in 2026
While the iPhone 17 may represent a more iterative update, the outlook for Apple’s iPhone business brightens considerably when looking towards the 2026 iPhone 18 series. This generation is expected to drive significant sales momentum, largely fueled by the debut of major new technologies.
Key Drivers for iPhone 18 Growth:
- Advanced, Competitive AI: A major catalyst for the iPhone 18’s projected success is the expected rollout of truly advanced generative AI features. Despite current challenges with “Apple Intelligence,” the consensus is that by 2026, Apple will have refined its platform and be ready to launch sophisticated AI capabilities integrated into iOS and the iPhone 18 hardware, finally putting it on competitive footing with rivals. This is seen as addressing a significant gap in Apple’s current offering.
- Apple’s First Foldable iPhone: Equally significant is the strong indication that Apple plans to launch its first foldable iPhone alongside the standard iPhone 18 series in 2026. This “foldable flagship” has been rumored for years and represents a major expansion into a growing market segment. Prototype details, though not official, have surfaced, hinting at aspects like display characteristics and a durable ‘amorphous metal glass composite’ hinge, according to tipsters. This new form factor is expected to attract significant attention and premium customers.
- Cutting-Edge Internal Hardware: Beyond the headline features of AI and the foldable, the iPhone 18 range is anticipated to pack substantial internal upgrades that contribute to its appeal.
A20 Chipset: Central among these is the rumored A20 chipset. Expected to be built on TSMC’s cutting-edge 2nm process (anticipated for mass production next year), this chip promises significant efficiency and performance gains.
Advanced Packaging: High-end models, including the iPhone 18 Pro variants and potentially the foldable, are rumored to utilize TSMC’s advanced Wafer-Level Multi-Chip Module (WMCM) packaging. This technology allows for more flexible and power-efficient integration of components, improving performance per watt.
Performance & Memory: Performance estimates suggest the A20 could be up to 15 percent faster than its predecessor (A19) at the same power consumption, though RAM capacity is expected to remain at 12GB. The chips are also expected to support six-channel memory for increased bandwidth.
Design Refinement: Additionally, display analyst Ross Young has indicated a minor design refinement, predicting the iPhone 18 series will feature a smaller pill-shaped display cutout.
Outlook for 2026
While specific shipment forecasts for the iPhone 18 are still premature given the over a year timeframe until launch, the overall sentiment from analysts like JP Morgan is clear: 2026 is shaping up to be a major growth year for Apple’s iPhone, largely driven by the debut of advanced AI and the highly anticipated foldable model, supported by powerful next-gen hardware like the 2nm A20 chip.
In conclusion, while the iPhone 17 may face a challenging market reception due to feature omissions and external pressures, the future looks significantly brighter for Apple’s mobile division in 2026. The combination of finally competitive AI, a groundbreaking foldable device, and cutting-edge silicon is poised to re-energize sales and mark a pivotal moment for the iPhone brand.
