The 2025 NBA Finals have delivered a captivating battle, pushing the Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers to the ultimate test: Game 7. For only the 19th time in league history, the championship hangs in the balance in a winner-take-all contest. This series, defined by its intensity and unpredictability, reaches its climax with both small-market franchises vying for their first NBA title.
History offers conflicting clues. While home teams hold a significant 15-4 advantage in previous Finals Game 7s – seemingly favoring the top-seeded Thunder playing at Paycom Center – the four road teams to claim the title all hailed from the Eastern Conference, a potential omen for the No. 4 seed Pacers concluding their improbable playoff run. Adding another layer of intrigue, the last three Finals decided in Game 7 were won by teams that trailed 3-2 in the series, a scenario the Pacers navigated to force this moment.
Yet, beyond historical footnotes, these two teams share a striking resemblance. Both boast young, deep, and close-knit rosters led by All-NBA point guards and respected coaches. They lean heavily on defensive intensity, unselfish play, and contributions from every player on the roster. As Thunder coach Mark Daigneault noted, these are teams where “the whole is better than the sum of the parts,” squaring off in a high-stakes clash. Players on both sides acknowledge the magnitude, with OKC’s Jalen Williams describing the feeling as one that “makes the hair on your arms stand up.”
As the Thunder and Pacers prepare for the final 48 minutes (or more) of the season, here are the key factors that could decide the 2025 NBA champion:
The Roar of the Paycom Center
Oklahoma City’s home court advantage has been a defining narrative of their playoff run. They hold a dominant 10-2 record at home this postseason, boasting a staggering +20.7 net rating compared to a -6.2 mark on the road. This significant edge is largely powered by their defense, which is 12.7 points per 100 possessions better when playing in front of their fans.
Thunder players like Jalen Williams, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Cason Wallace have all spoken about the unique energy the home crowd provides, especially in high-pressure moments. Williams anticipates Game 7 will feature the “best home crowd” he’s ever experienced, predicting the atmosphere will be “incredibly loud” with a “different energy than it’s ever had,” multiplying previous big-game atmospheres “by tenfold.” While the Pacers have proven they can win on the road (7-4 playoff record) and even stole a game in Oklahoma City this series, conquering a Game 7 Finals environment is a different challenge entirely, one Indiana guard T.J. McConnell acknowledges is difficult without their home crowd’s energy.
Winning the Possession Battle
In a series featuring two teams built on defensive disruption and pace, control of the “possession game” – primarily turnovers and offensive rebounds – has been paramount. The team that has won this battle has typically won the game. Indiana decisively won this in Game 6, fueling their blowout victory.
Thunder center Isaiah Hartenstein admitted OKC didn’t play their usual “brand of defense” in Game 6, allowing the Pacers to be comfortable. For Game 7, look for which team can force more turnovers, limit the opponent’s second-chance opportunities, and generate extra possessions for themselves. Turnovers and contributions from the bench are expected to be crucial indicators of who is controlling the flow and creating scoring chances.
Backcourt Catalysts Beyond the Stars
While the All-NBA guards Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Tyrese Haliburton command attention, the impact of key players around them, particularly in the backcourt rotation, could be decisive.
For the Pacers, veteran backup T.J. McConnell has been a revelation. His relentless pressure, quick hands (averaging 2.3 steals in the series), and ability to create offense without relying on outside shooting make him a unique threat. In Game 3, he became the first bench player in Finals history with at least 10 points, 5 assists, and 5 steals. He’s currently the only reserve with at least 60 points, 25 assists, and 15 rebounds in a single Finals. His intangible hustle and impact off the bench have drawn comparisons to J.J. Barea’s role on the 2011 Mavericks championship team.
The Thunder’s answer could be Alex Caruso. The versatile two-way guard has also been a defensive irritant, averaging 2.3 steals in the series, matching McConnell’s mark. Caruso has demonstrated an ability to provide scoring punch when needed, hitting double-digits multiple times. His defensive tenacity and timely offensive contributions make him OKC’s prime candidate to provide a similar spark from the guard rotation.
Will the Bigs Break Through?
While the NBA’s center landscape has shifted from eras dominated by giants like Russell or Abdul-Jabbar, the performance of Chet Holmgren and Myles Turner remains a key subplot. Neither big man was expected to be the focal point, but both have seen their offensive production dip relative to their regular-season efficiency.
Oklahoma City’s Chet Holmgren is shooting just 35% from the field in the Finals and a cold 2-of-17 from three, a significant drop from his 49% overall and 38% three-point shooting during the regular season. Indiana’s Myles Turner, known for his ability to stretch the floor, has also struggled with his shot, hitting 36.8% overall and just 5-of-25 from beyond the arc, well below his career playoff percentages.
Both coaches acknowledge their bigs’ defensive value remains high. Daigneault noted the difficulty for players to sustain elite offensive efficiency over a long series as teams make adjustments to take away strengths. While their offensive numbers have been down, a timely shot or dominant defensive stretch from either Holmgren or Turner could provide a critical boost in Game 7.
Tyrese Haliburton’s Health and OKC’s Plan
A major concern for the Pacers has been Tyrese Haliburton’s health, specifically a strained left calf. While he played in Game 6 and appeared less hampered than in previous games (benefiting from fewer minutes in a blowout), the injury was a factor earlier in the series. Crucially, Haliburton is not on the injury report for Game 7, a positive sign for Indiana.
Despite this, the Thunder may look to exploit any lingering limitations. While they didn’t aggressively target Haliburton defensively in Game 6, look for Oklahoma City to potentially involve him more in pick-and-roll actions or force him into situations requiring quick lateral movement to test the calf early in Game 7. How Haliburton moves and how OKC decides to attack him defensively will be a key strategic battle.
Mental Fortitude & Drawing on Experience
Game 7 is as much a test of mental strength as physical skill. Both teams will draw on lessons learned throughout this series and their playoff journeys. Daigneault described the game as a “contest of wills.”
The Thunder can look to their own Game 7 victory against the Denver Nuggets earlier in the playoffs, where they also bounced back from a tough Game 6 loss at home. Jalen Williams emphasized the importance of managing emotions in such high-stakes games. The Pacers, meanwhile, have recent history to lean on, including a decisive Game 7 road win against the New York Knicks in a hostile Madison Square Garden environment last postseason. As Obi Toppin put it after their Game 6 win, they needed to play with “genuine desperation” like “dogs” to force this moment. The team that best channels that intensity while maintaining composure and executing under pressure will have a significant edge.
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With the series margin incredibly close (Thunder outscoring the Pacers by just 7 points total across six games), a lopsided conclusion would be highly uncharacteristic. Expect a hard-fought, unpredictable Game 7, packed with drama and intensity, as one team etches its name into NBA history as the 2025 champion.
