A significant breakthrough may be on the horizon for the long-standing dispute between the United States and turkey regarding the F-35 fighter jet program. According to recent statements reported by Turkey’s state-run Anadolu Agency, the US Ambassador to Ankara, Tom Barrack, sees a genuine opportunity for a resolution by the close of the current year. This optimistic outlook signals a potential easing of tensions that have severely impacted defense cooperation between the NATO allies for half a decade.
Ambassador Barrack, also known as a billionaire investor, confidant of former President Donald Trump, and the US Special Representative for Syria, conveyed his confidence during a wide-ranging interview. He indicated that both Washington and Ankara are actively seeking a “fresh start” in their complex bilateral relationship. Crucially, Barrack suggested that the US Congress appears willing to revisit the contentious issues surrounding Turkey’s exclusion from the F-35 program and the associated sanctions. His projection is that finding a viable solution remains possible before the end of 2025.
The Roots of the Standoff: S-400s and Sanctions
The core of the US-Turkey defense impasse dates back to 2019. At that time, Ankara moved forward with its acquisition and activation of the Russian-made S-400 surface-to-air missile defense system. This decision drew sharp condemnation from the United States. Washington argued that integrating the S-400 system posed a significant security risk to NATO’s defense architecture. More specifically, US officials voiced concerns that the S-400 could potentially collect sensitive intelligence on the stealth capabilities of the advanced F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, thereby compromising its effectiveness and security.
In response to the S-400 purchase, the United States took punitive action. In 2020, it imposed sanctions on Turkey under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA). Furthermore, despite Turkey being a financial contributor and industrial partner in the F-35 program, manufacturing various parts for the aircraft, the US removed Ankara from the development and acquisition initiative. This dual blow – sanctions and exclusion from a key modern defense program – significantly strained the relationship between the two NATO heavyweights.
A Glimmer of Hope: Ambassador Barrack’s Optimism
Ambassador Barrack’s recent comments inject a notable degree of optimism into this protracted dispute. He attributes the potential for a resolution, in part, to the mutual trust established between U.S. President Donald Trump and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. According to Barrack, both leaders share a desire to see these long-standing issues resolved. This high-level political will is seen as a critical factor in overcoming technical and political hurdles.
Barrack also highlighted a more constructive environment within the US Congress. He described ongoing conversations as increasingly bipartisan, suggesting a growing willingness among lawmakers to consider a “reasonable outcome.” This shift is significant because Congressional support is essential for lifting CAATSA sanctions and potentially facilitating any future defense cooperation, including readmission to or a settlement regarding the F-35 program. Barrack believes that Congress would back a “realistic agreement” that leads to the lifting of sanctions against Turkey.
Factors Pushing for Resolution
Several factors seem to be contributing to this renewed push for a settlement. Ambassador Barrack pointed to Turkey’s enduring reliability and strategic value within NATO and the broader region. Despite its exclusion from the F-35 program, Turkey has continued its role in manufacturing certain parts for the aircraft. Additionally, Turkey has already made payments towards upgrades for its existing F-16 fleet, a separate but related defense procurement matter.
Barrack emphasized a fundamental shift in the U.S. perception of Turkey. He stated that Washington is moving beyond viewing Turkey merely as a traditional ally or partner. Instead, the U.S. now increasingly recognizes Ankara as a “strategic actor” and a pivotal regional leader. The global success of Turkey’s indigenous defense technologies, such as Baykar’s TB2 and Bayraktar UAVs, further underscores Ankara’s growing influence and importance in the global defense landscape. This reassessment of Turkey’s strategic weight likely contributes to the motivation to resolve existing friction points.
Beyond the Jets: A Broader Strategic Reset
Ambassador Barrack views the F-35 issue, along with other points of contention like F-16 sales, the S-400 situation, sanctions, and even customs tariffs, as “secondary elements.” He sees these issues as part of a larger, broader mission: a potential complete reset of the U.S.-Turkey bilateral agenda that has been debated intensely over the past five years.
This perspective suggests that the potential F-35 resolution isn’t just about a single defense program. It could be indicative of a deeper strategic re-alignment and an effort to transition the relationship from one primarily focused on defense partnership to one emphasizing proactive strategic collaboration. Barrack envisions Turkey potentially becoming a center for regional transformation and peace, leveraging its multicultural society, historical depth, its status as NATO’s second-largest military, and its dynamic population. He even cited the historical coexistence of different religious communities in Izmir as a model for broader global harmony efforts.
High-level diplomatic engagement is expected to drive this potential resolution forward. A meeting between President Trump and President Erdogan is anticipated within the coming months. Following this, it’s expected that leaders will instruct their top diplomats, such as the U.S. Secretary of State and the Turkish Foreign Minister, to work directly towards finding a mutually acceptable solution. Barrack believes that for the first time, there is a mutual commitment on both sides to achieve this transition towards a strategic partnership.
Potential Hurdles and the Path Ahead
While optimism is high, the exact nature of a resolution for the S-400 system remains unclear. Washington has consistently maintained that the S-400s must be removed or addressed before sanctions can be fully eased. Speculation exists regarding potential solutions, such as partially dismantling the system or relocating it, possibly to a U.S. base within Turkey. However, these are discussed ideas rather than concrete, publicly announced proposals.
Turkey, for its part, has consistently called for the lifting of sanctions to restore full defense cooperation. President Erdogan has engaged directly with President Trump on this matter, advocating for the F-16 purchase and readmission to the F-35 program. He has linked enhanced defense industry cooperation to broader economic goals, including reaching a $100 billion bilateral trade volume. It’s also worth noting that Turkey is exploring other avenues for modernizing its air force, including potential purchases of Eurofighter Typhoons, indicating a multi-pronged approach to its defense needs regardless of the US outcome.
Ultimately, the personal bond and trust between President Trump and President Erdogan are seen by Barrack as a crucial foundation, particularly during this volatile historical period. This trust is considered essential for unlocking a “new chapter” in U.S.-Turkey relations and navigating complex regional challenges. The coming months, especially towards the end of 2025, will reveal whether this expressed optimism translates into a concrete resolution of the F-35 and CAATSA issues.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the core issue behind Turkey’s exclusion from the F-35 program?
The main reason Turkey was removed from the F-35 program stems from its decision to purchase and activate the Russian-made S-400 air defense system in 2019. The United States and NATO allies raised concerns that the S-400 could potentially compromise the stealth technology and security of the F-35 jet if operated concurrently.
What sanctions did the US impose on Turkey due to the S-400 purchase?
Following the S-400 acquisition, the U.S. imposed sanctions on Turkey in 2020 under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA). These sanctions targeted Turkey’s defense industry and further strained bilateral relations, alongside the removal from the F-35 development and acquisition program.
Is a resolution to the US-Turkey F-35 dispute likely soon?
According to recent statements by US Ambassador to Turkey, Tom Barrack, there is a “real opportunity” for the F-35 issue and related sanctions to be resolved by the end of 2025. This optimism is based on mutual trust between leaders, a potential shift in Congressional willingness, and a desire for a broader strategic reset in US-Turkey relations.
The path to resolving the F-35 issue is complex, intertwined with addressing the S-400 system and lifting CAATSA sanctions. While challenges remain, particularly regarding the S-400’s fate, the expressed optimism from high-level diplomats suggests a dedicated effort is underway. The coming months will be critical in determining if this potential breakthrough materializes, marking a turning point in US-Turkey defense cooperation and the broader strategic relationship.
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