Game 6 of the 2025 NBA Finals is set for Thursday night in Indianapolis, presenting a pivotal moment for both the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Indiana Pacers. The Thunder hold a commanding 3-2 series lead after their impressive 120-109 victory in Game 5, fueled by Jalen Williams’ dominant 40-point performance. Now, Oklahoma City stands just one win away from securing their first championship since relocating to the Sooner State.
The series shifts back to Gainbridge Fieldhouse, where the teams split Games 3 and 4. For the Pacers, it’s a must-win scenario to stave off elimination and force a decisive Game 7. Adding significant uncertainty for Indiana is the status of their star point guard, Tyrese Haliburton, who is battling a calf strain that visibly impacted him in Game 5. This injury looms large over the betting landscape for Game 6.
With the Thunder being heavy favorites to close out the series (teams with a 3-2 lead in the NBA Finals historically win the series over 80% of the time), analysts are pinpointing specific bets that offer potential value in this critical matchup.
Here are some bets standing out ahead of Game 6, incorporating insights from various experts:
Game 6 Player Prop Bets to Watch
The potential limitations or absence of Tyrese Haliburton are central to many player prop evaluations for the Pacers. Meanwhile, evaluating the performance of star players and key role players, especially on the road, is crucial for the Thunder.
Andrew Nembhard Over 15.5 Total Points and Assists (-110)
With Haliburton’s calf issue, other Pacers perimeter players must step up. Nembhard, as the starting second point guard, has a history of elevated performance when needed. He cleared this line in six of his first seven playoff games this season and 10 times overall in the postseason, including Game 1 of the Finals. Notably, in last season’s Eastern Conference finals when Haliburton was injured, Nembhard significantly increased his production, averaging 28.0 PPG and 9.5 APG in home games. The opportunity for Nembhard to carry a larger playmaking and scoring load is substantial if Haliburton is limited.
Bennedict Mathurin Over 10.5 Points (-118)
Another beneficiary of a potentially compromised Haliburton could be Bennedict Mathurin. Mathurin’s per-minute scoring ranks high among playoff players, and his offensive usage rate significantly increases when Haliburton is off the floor. During the regular season, Mathurin averaged 21.0 points in seven games without Haliburton, never scoring less than 19 in all but one. His performance and efficiency are also notably better at home. Given Haliburton’s uncertain status, Mathurin is poised for potentially increased minutes and scoring opportunities.
Aaron Nesmith Over 16.5 Pts + Reb (-108)
Aaron Nesmith has been a remarkably consistent contributor in the combined points and rebounds category this postseason, exceeding this line in 14 of 21 playoff games and in four of the five NBA Finals contests. His combined P+R per minute rate shows an increase when playing alongside T.J. McConnell, who might see more time if Haliburton is limited. Nesmith also shoots the three-pointer more effectively at home in the playoffs, and the Thunder’s road defense has shown some vulnerability, potentially leading to more rebounding chances for Indiana.
Pascal Siakam Over 28.5 Total Points and Rebounds (-115)
Pascal Siakam has arguably been the Pacers’ most consistent high-level performer in the Finals, averaging 22.8 PPG and 6.3 RPG (29.1 P+R) over his last 12 games. He has gone over 28.5 P+R six times in that span. As an impact player with championship experience, playing at home in a must-win situation, Siakam is expected to take on an even heavier burden, especially with Haliburton dealing with his calf issue.
Alex Caruso Over 9.5 Points (-125)
On the Thunder side, role players often step up on the road. With the Pacers needing to contain Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams, open looks should be available for others. Alex Caruso has been a consistent presence in the Finals, averaging nearly 30 minutes per game. He has cleared this 9.5-point line in three of five Finals games and in eight of 10 games this season when playing 27 or more minutes, demonstrating the upside potential with ample playing time.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 40.5 Pts + Ast (-118)
While Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the Thunder’s MVP and has delivered massive scoring performances (including 31 points in Game 5 and his 15th 30+ point game of the playoffs), analyzing his road performance offers a different perspective. In nine road playoff games this season, SGA has averaged 34.5 combined points and assists, going under 40.5 P+A in seven of those games. This includes both Games 3 and 4 in Indianapolis, where he recorded 28 and 35 P+A respectively. His shooting efficiency dips on the road, which can also impact his assist numbers if teammates struggle.
Other Noteworthy Game 6 Betting Angles
Beyond individual player props, there are team-level and game-specific bets gaining attention.
Thunder Over 114.5 Points (-106)
The potential severity of Tyrese Haliburton’s injury could significantly hinder the Pacers’ ability to slow down the Thunder offense. OKC scored 120 points in Game 5 and has shown their scoring strengths are sustainable. They have consistently attacked the paint (averaging 45.6 paint points in the series against a Pacers defense allowing 47.5), shown improved outside shooting, and been aggressive in getting to the free-throw line (30+ attempts in four straight games). These factors suggest Oklahoma City can maintain a high scoring output even on the road.
Thunder -2.5 1st Quarter Spread (+102)
Oklahoma City has demonstrated a strong tendency to start games well in this series, winning the first quarter in four out of five contests with an average margin of +8.3 points in their four wins. Favorable matchups, defensive adjustments like contesting Pacers’ threes, and dominance in the turnover battle contribute to these strong starts. The potential disruption to the Pacers’ early rhythm caused by Haliburton’s injury could further support another fast start for the Thunder.
Game 6 Odds and Injury Report
As of publication time, the latest odds for Game 6 from ESPN BET are:
Point Spread: Thunder -6.5 (-105) | Pacers +6.5 (-115)
Moneyline: Thunder -230 | Pacers +195
Total: 221.5 (-110 O, -110 U)
The Basketball Power Index (BPI) projects a tighter game, favoring the Thunder by 1.9 points with a 56% chance of winning outright, and forecasting a total of 226.1 points.
Injury Report:
Thunder: Nikola Topic (Out – Knee)
- Pacers: Tyrese Haliburton (Game Time Decision – Calf); Jarace Walker (Out – Ankle); Isaiah Jackson (Out – Achilles)
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Game 6 presents a high-stakes showdown. The Pacers must find a way to overcome a series deficit and a key injury, while the Thunder look to capitalize on their lead and clinch the title on the road. These betting picks highlight some of the key player matchups and potential impacts of the Haliburton situation on the game’s outcome.
