Spain-NATO Standoff: Defence Spending Target Threatens Summit
A significant disagreement over future defense spending is brewing within NATO, with Spain potentially holding the key to derailing a major agreement at the alliance’s upcoming summit in The Hague (June 24-25). Madrid is reportedly preparing to formally reject a proposed target for member states to increase their defense spending to 5% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2032, a move that requires unanimous consent from all 32 allies and could therefore block the measure.
Why the Push for a Higher Target?
The proposal for a substantial increase from the current minimum target of 2% of GDP is being championed by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. This push is largely driven by mounting concerns over Russia’s continued aggression in Ukraine and a strategic pivot by the United States towards focusing resources on countering China and reinforcing deterrence in the Indo-Pacific. Washington has increasingly pressed European allies to take on a greater share of the defense burden in the Euro-Atlantic area, a call notably amplified under former President Donald Trump, who has been critical of allies not contributing their “fair share.”
The ambitious 5% target envisions allocating 3.5% of GDP to core military capabilities and an additional 1.5% to broader security-related areas like infrastructure. Many NATO leaders now view the decade-old 2% target as insufficient in the current geopolitical climate.
Spain’s Firm Opposition
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has communicated Madrid’s reservations directly to Secretary General Rutte. Sanchez reportedly argues that committing to a 5% target would be “unreasonable” and “counterproductive” for Spain. He stated it would move the country further away from optimal spending levels, hinder efforts to strengthen the European Union’s own defense capabilities, and is fundamentally “incompatible with our welfare state and our world vision.” Spain asserts it has a “legitimate right” as a sovereign ally to decline the sacrifices required for such a dramatic increase.
Spain has consistently signaled discomfort with a mandated increase beyond the existing 2% target. Defence Minister Margarita Robles has previously stated that “two per cent is enough to meet the responsibilities we have committed to,” emphasizing that the focus should be on countries simply meeting self-imposed targets.
The Financial Reality for Spain
Reaching a 5% defense spending level would necessitate a colossal increase in Spain’s annual defense budget, estimated to be around €80 billion. This figure represents nearly half the size of Spain’s entire pensions bill, a financial commitment the current government appears unwilling or unable to absorb. Spain currently spends the lowest percentage of GDP on defense among all NATO members, estimated at just 1.28% in 2024. Although Prime Minister Sanchez had agreed in April to accelerate efforts towards meeting the existing 2% target, the leap to 5% presents a far greater challenge.
For comparison, the United States, the largest spender in absolute terms, committed an estimated 3.38% of its GDP to defense in 2024. Several European allies already exceed or are close to the 2% mark, with Poland notably spending an estimated 4.12% and Estonia 3.43%. The UK currently spends around 2.33% and aims for 2.5%. Many countries, including Spain, Canada, Italy, and Portugal, still struggle to meet the existing 2% baseline.
Domestic Political Minefield
The issue of increased defense spending is also a major source of tension within Spain’s coalition government. Prime Minister Sanchez’s socialist party is reportedly amenable to increases under NATO and US pressure, but his left-wing coalition partners, including Izquierda Unida (IU), Podemos, and Sumar, are vehemently opposed.
Parties like IU and Podemos view increased military spending as a “betrayal” of progressive principles, aligning Spain too closely with US and NATO strategic interests. They warn that prioritizing rearmament will inevitably lead to severe cuts in vital public services and social programs, labelling such expenditure increases as “theft from the public.” This internal opposition is so strong that parties like IU have warned that remaining in government would be “practically impossible” if the spending increases proceed. Despite this fierce political opposition from the left, public opinion surveys surprisingly indicate that around 75% of Spaniards actually support increasing military spending, particularly after Donald Trump’s re-election.
What’s Next? Unanimity and the Summit
Because NATO operates on a consensus model, any decision to formally adopt a new defense spending target like 5% requires the unanimous agreement of all 32 member states. Spain’s formal resistance, backed by its stance that the target is “unreasonable” and “incompatible,” gives it the power to potentially block the adoption of this specific goal at the Hague summit.
While sources close to Madrid haven’t entirely ruled out reaching a higher target in the distant future, particularly if the security situation escalates dramatically, they consider setting an official 5% figure now to be “premature.” Spain is reportedly not alone in its reservations, with a “coalition of countries” sharing similar views, although perhaps not with the same level of public or political pushback. Some allies, like Italy, are reportedly seeking flexibility on timelines or target specifics.
Secretary General Rutte has acknowledged that discussions on a new defense investment plan are ongoing among allies. While acknowledging disagreements, senior European officials still view Spain as a “steadfast ally” and hope for a resolution through continued dialogue. The upcoming summit in The Hague will be the critical juncture where the alliance attempts to bridge these differences and solidify its commitment to future defense capabilities amidst a complex security landscape.
