The Caribbean braces for a dire week as Tropical Storm Melissa unleashes torrential downpours across Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Forecasters issue urgent warnings of severe flooding and devastating landslides across the northern Caribbean. This slow-moving system, the 13th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, poses a significant threat to lives and infrastructure, prompting immediate emergency responses from regional governments. Residents in vulnerable areas are urged to prepare for potentially catastrophic impacts as Melissa intensifies.
Tropical Storm Melissa’s Current Path and Looming Threat
As of Tuesday, October 21, 2025, a NOAA satellite image captured Tropical Storm Melissa churning in the Central Caribbean Sea. By Wednesday, October 22, the storm’s center was situated approximately 320 miles (510 kilometers) south-southwest of Port-au-Prince, Haiti. It was also about 315 miles (510 kilometers) southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. With maximum sustained winds of 50 mph (80 kph) and moving west at a sluggish 2 mph (4 kph), Melissa’s slow pace intensifies the danger, allowing more time for heavy rainfall to accumulate.
AccuWeather’s lead hurricane expert, Alex DaSilva, issued a stark warning. He stated that people across Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Cuba, and Jamaica must prepare. The increasing threat includes torrential rainfall, flash flooding, power outages, and washed-out roads. DaSilva emphasized, “The impacts from Melissa could be catastrophic.” Experts also note that unusually warm ocean temperatures, 4 to 5 degrees above average, are fueling Melissa’s projected strengthening.
Forecast: Intensification and Uncertain Trajectory
Forecasts indicate that Tropical Storm Melissa is expected to strengthen rapidly. It could become a hurricane by Friday, approaching Jamaica and southwest Haiti later this week. Hurricane conditions are possible in southern Haiti as early as late Thursday. Tropical storm conditions might begin affecting Jamaica late Thursday or Friday. The U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) highlighted significant uncertainty regarding Melissa’s precise long-term path. They noted the possibility of it threatening Haiti or Cuba, or veering further west south of Jamaica. The NHC advised that this is an “extremely uncertain forecast,” with potential for “significant changes.” Long-range projections from hurricane specialist Michael Lowry even suggest Melissa could escalate to a dangerous Category 3 storm or higher by early next week.
Grappling with Catastrophic Flood and Landslide Risks
The primary and most deadly threat from Tropical Storm Melissa is its immense rainfall. Southern Haiti and the southern Dominican Republic are forecast to receive a staggering 5 to 10 inches (12 to 25 centimeters) of rain through Friday. Some isolated areas could experience even higher amounts. Jamaica also anticipates several inches of rainfall. Northern areas of Hispaniola, Aruba, and Puerto Rico are expected to see lesser, yet still significant, accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. These substantial rainfall totals carry a high potential for life-threatening landslides and devastating flash flooding.
Michael Lowry, a hurricane specialist and storm surge expert, underscored the historical danger. He stated, “Flooding is historically the deadliest calling card of tropical systems in this part of the world, and the threat Melissa brings will be no exception.” Haiti, with its widespread erosion and vulnerable infrastructure, faces particular concern. Past storms have repeatedly devastated the nation due to severe inundation. The sheer volume of water expected from Melissa could easily overwhelm drainage systems and trigger widespread destruction.
Immediate Impacts and Vulnerabilities
Early effects of Melissa were already felt on Tuesday. Rains snarled traffic in Santo Domingo, the Dominican Republic’s bustling capital. Professional baseball league games across the country were canceled as a precaution. In Haiti, the looming prospect of heavy flooding ignited widespread concern. The country’s topography, coupled with deforestation and widespread erosion, amplifies the risk. This makes its communities exceptionally vulnerable to the catastrophic consequences of prolonged, intense rainfall. The potential for these intense rains to trigger landslides poses a grave and immediate danger, particularly in mountainous and densely populated regions.
Regional Emergency Responses and Preparedness
Governments across the affected region have initiated urgent preparedness measures. Dominican President Luis Abinader announced decisive actions. Schools in nine provinces under alert were ordered to close for Wednesday and Thursday. He also issued a binding order for all public sector entities and nonessential private businesses to cease operations by early Wednesday afternoon. Authorities strongly urged residents in flood-prone areas to evacuate to higher ground proactively. Already, dozens of people in the southern Dominican Republic sought refuge in shelters. Approximately 500 voluntary rescue personnel fanned out across the region to provide assistance. Furthermore, officials reported dozens of water supply systems out of service, impacting over half a million customers.
Jamaica also moved swiftly to activate its emergency plans. A tropical storm watch was in effect for the island. Minister of Water and Environment, Matthew Samuda, confirmed that 881 shelters across the island were prepared for use as needed. Southern Haiti, from its border with the Dominican Republic to Port-au-Prince, was placed under a hurricane watch, signaling an even higher level of threat. These preemptive measures highlight the severity of the expected conditions and the commitment to minimizing human impact.
Broader Atlantic Hurricane Season Context
Tropical Storm Melissa marks the 13th named storm of the current Atlantic hurricane season. Notably, it is the first named storm to form directly in the Caribbean this year. This aligns with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) earlier prediction of an above-normal season. NOAA had forecasted 13 to 18 named storms. Of these, 5 to 9 were expected to become hurricanes, including 2 to 5 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher with winds of 111 mph or greater). The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 30. Melissa’s late-season formation underscores the ongoing need for vigilance throughout the entire period.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the immediate dangers of Tropical Storm Melissa in the Caribbean?
Tropical Storm Melissa presents immediate and severe dangers primarily due to torrential rainfall. This precipitation is expected to cause widespread flash flooding, particularly in southern Haiti and the Dominican Republic, where 5 to 10 inches are forecast. The storm’s slow movement exacerbates this risk, increasing water accumulation. Furthermore, the saturated ground and widespread erosion, especially in Haiti, heighten the potential for life-threatening landslides, power outages, and road washouts. Experts warn these impacts could be catastrophic.
Where are the most affected areas and what preparations are underway?
The most directly affected areas include southern Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Jamaica. A hurricane watch is active for southern Haiti, while Jamaica is under a tropical storm watch. In the Dominican Republic, President Abinader ordered school closures in nine provinces and suspended non-essential public and private sector operations. Evacuations to higher ground are urged, and hundreds of rescue personnel are deployed. Jamaica has activated 881 shelters across the island, ready for use as needed by residents seeking refuge.
How long is Tropical Storm Melissa expected to impact the region, and what’s its potential intensity?
Tropical Storm Melissa is expected to bring significant impacts throughout the week, with heavy rainfall continuing at least through Friday. Forecasters anticipate the storm will strengthen into a hurricane by Friday, approaching Jamaica and southwest Haiti. While the exact long-term trajectory has “very large uncertainty,” there’s a possibility Melissa could escalate into a Category 3 storm or higher by early next week. Residents should remain vigilant for several days as the storm’s path and intensity could change rapidly.
Remaining Vigilant Amidst Uncertainty
As Tropical Storm Melissa progresses through the Caribbean, the need for heightened vigilance cannot be overstated. The combination of its slow movement, projected intensification, and the severe rainfall it carries presents a critical threat to vulnerable island nations. While official responses are underway, individual preparedness remains paramount. Staying informed through official channels and adhering to evacuation orders will be essential in mitigating the potential for widespread damage and tragic loss of life. The full impact of Melissa will unfold in the coming days, requiring sustained attention and coordinated efforts from residents and authorities alike.
