Pulling from my 10 Fantasy Takeaways from Week 1, the Chargers came out with the explicit goal of letting Justin Herbert sling it. The Chargers logged a 15 percent pass rate over expected, the highest rate in the league. His Week 2 opponent — the Raiders — faced the third-highest pass rate over expected of Week 1. LA also went from having three or more wide receivers on the field on 77 percent of their passing plays in 2024 to 88 percent on Sunday. LA didn’t stumble into a pass-first approach versus Kansas City. It was the exact game they were looking for. The Chargers/Raiders game has the third-highest total of the week at 46.5, tying it with a handful of contests. This is the perfect setup for a Herbert QB1 encore.
Week 1 wasn’t the debut my fellow Maye stans and I wanted from the second-year passer, but it could have been worse. Pro Football Focus graded him as their No. 12 passer on the week. He ranked 17th in EPA per play and 11th in completion percent over expected. The Patriots now get a Miami defense this week that was just shredded by Daniel Jones and the Colts. The Dolphins were 25th in EPA per passing play allowed in Week 1. Even if Maye falls short of a true breakout in year two, he should have no issues paying off in Week 2.
The Seahawks don’t want Darnold to score fantasy points. Their -14% pass rate over expected trailed only the Jets in Week 1.
No team passed less often than the Seahawks on first and second down and they were awful when they tried, ranking ahead of only the Broncos and Titans in EPA per dropback on early downs. Darnold and the Seahawks now have the third-lowest implied team total of the week at 18.25. Even in Superflex, Darnold is a clear fade for a road trip to Pittsburgh.
No defense generated pressure at a higher clip than the Broncos in Week 1. They were in Cam Ward’s face on 55.6 percent of his dropbacks. Denver also had the second-highest quick pressure rate at 36.1 percent. How does Daniel Jones handle pressure? Not well, in fact. Over the past three seasons, Jones has averaged 5.4 YPA under pressure with a 61.9 quarterback rating. Those marks rank 39th and 30th out of 54 qualified quarterbacks. Expected Dimes to come back to Earth versus a stout Denver defense this week.
Etienne was a different player in Week 1. He averaged 5.75 yards after contact and 4.31 rush yards over expected per attempt. For reference, those numbers were at 2.48 and -.29 last year. Etienne was the Jags’ primary ball-carrier with 16 attempts and a 56 percent carry share. Jacksonville then traded Tank Bigbsy — Etienne’s biggest competition for touches — after Week 1. It’s wheels up for the former first-rounder heading into Week 2.
RJ Harvey looked electric in Week 1 and even Tyler Badie mixed in for a shocking number of targets, but Dobbins was Sean Payton’s top option between the tackles. Dobbins saw 16 carries, two of which were in the red zone. He was the only Broncos running back to see a red zone attempt in Week 1. Denver is favored by 1.5 points this week, giving them another chance to establish their ground game with Dobbins leading the charge.
Tracy was a fade last week because of the impending negative game script and his poor pass-catching peripherals. Nothing has changed for Week 2. The Giants are five-point underdogs to the Cowboys on the road. After averaging a poor .9 yards per route run as a rookie, Tracy looked even worse in Week 1 with .3 YPRR. He fared no better on the ground, averaging a dismal 2.1 yards after contact per carry. Tracy is inefficient on all fronts and doesn’t play for a team that will be able to load him up with touches. He remains a low-ceiling RB3.
Walker drafters woke up to a lump of coal under their Week 1 Christmas trees on Monday morning. Zach Charbonnet usurped Walker as the team’s RB1, out-carrying him 12-10 while also running more routes. Walker did nothing to earn more of a role in Week 2, ranking last in the league in rush yards over expected per carry (-2.1) and nearly last in yards after contact (1.7). Fantasy managers have to treat Walker as the lesser half of a committee until proven otherwise.
For McConkey backers like myself, watching Keenan Allen and Quentin Johnston both hit paydirt in Week 1 hurt. It was not, however, a sign of things to come. McConkey saw a healthy 26 percent target share and was targeted on 24 percent of his routes. He ranked inside the top 20 receivers in expected fantasy points. Now he gets a high-scoring date with the Raiders. Hold the line McConkey stans. Big games are coming.
The 49ers had no issues throwing Pearsall in Week 1, giving him six targets, which was the most for a San Francisco wideout. Now they don’t even have a choice. George Kittle is on injured reserve and Jauan Jennings is dealing with a shoulder injury. Pearsall operated as a clear deep threat in Week 1, seeing six targets at an aDOT of 21. He got home with four grabs for 108 yards, but an average target depth over 20 would have made his fantasy production unimaginably frustrating. Now down multiple pass-catchers, he should add a bedrock of short targets to his long-ball duties. Even with Mac Jones as his quarterback, Pearsall might be too big to fail in Week 2.
On the plus side, Mims’ role by routes has grown compared to 2024. His 63 percent route rate last week would have been his highest of the previous regular season. On the other hand, maybe Mims shouldn’t play a normal role. He ran 36 percent of his routes from the slot and 14 percent out of the backfield in 2024. Those numbers fell to 19 percent and three percent last week. Confined to a more traditional role, Mims was targeted on 15 percent of his routes and averaged a dysfunctional .44 YPRR. It’s a long season, but Mims doesn’t look capable of hacking it as a normal wideout.
The Lions struggled to successfully design plays for Jameson Williams in Week 1. He was the target on just two of Jared Goff’s first-read throws. Williams caught both for a grand total of nine yards. In total, Williams was only targeted on 12 percent of his routes. His targets were also shockingly shallow, with an aDOT of 5.4. Williams struggled to earn targets last year but was such a dynamic speedster that it often didn’t matter. Things are going to get much worse for his fantasy backers this year if the Lions are unable to get him open in space.
Tight end roles don’t get better than how the Saints deployed Johnson in Week 1. He played every snap on offense and logged a route rate of 96 percent. His 11 targets led all tight ends in Week 1. His 27 percent target share and 30 percent air yards share were both top five at his position. Even with Spencer Rattler at the helm, Johnson is going to flirt with TE1 fantasy numbers.
You cannot put this genie back in the bottle. Fannin broke out in Week 1 with seven grabs for 63 yards and three yards on the ground. His route rate of 65 percent was serviceable at best, but you don’t need a full role when you’re a stud. Fannin was targeted on 28 percent of his routes and earned 2.03 YPRR. The Browns are staring down the barrel of another 50-dropback game when they take on Baltimore this week, setting Fannin up for another volume-laden game.
You can play Kincaid if you must. This is just a PSA that his role has not changed. Kincaid’s 32 routes were the eighth-most for a tight end in Week 1, but that was purely a function of Josh Allen dropping back 53 times. A route rate of 60 percent ranked 27th among tight ends, putting Kincaid behind Fannin. Kincaid ran 60 percent of his routes from the slot and averaged 1.5 YPRR. His career slot rate is 59 percent and his career YPRR is 1.52. New year, same Kincaid.
There were plenty of rookie tight end breakouts to be had in Week 1, but Loveland was not among them. The No. 10 overall pick ran fewer than half of the routes in his debut and was only targeted on 10 percent of his routes. He isn’t even on the TE2 radar for Week 2.
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