The NFL season kickoff brings immense excitement, particularly for those targeting anytime touchdown scorer bets. Week 1 offers a fresh slate, presenting unique opportunities to identify players poised to find the end zone. As expert strategists, we’ve meticulously analyzed matchups, player performance, and critical betting insights. Our goal is to provide you with high-value NFL Anytime Touchdown Props that go beyond the obvious favorites. This guide delivers actionable picks, backed by data, to help you make informed decisions for the upcoming Sunday, September 7th games.
Unpacking High-Value Anytime Touchdown Bets for Week 1
Identifying the most promising anytime touchdown picks requires deep dives into player roles, defensive vulnerabilities, and historical trends. We assess each matchup carefully, pinpointing where the odds offer true value. Sometimes, the best opportunities lie outside the main spotlight. Let’s explore our top NFL Anytime Touchdown Props for Week 1.
New York Jets vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: Fields’ Rushing Threat & Steelers TEs
The Jets’ offense, with quarterback Justin Fields, continues to be a focal point. Fields showed a clear tendency for rushing touchdowns last season. He recorded five rushing TDs in just six starts. His scramble rate per dropback consistently ranked among the league’s top five. This suggests a continued reliance on his legs, especially in the red zone. Despite some concerns about his passing accuracy, Fields offers solid value at +230 for an anytime touchdown. Embrace his rushing upside, particularly when passing options are heavily covered.
For the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Week 1 performance of Aaron Rodgers remains a question mark. Betting markets often overvalue star wide receivers like DK Metcalf (priced at +185). However, a more strategic approach involves targeting the tight end position. The Steelers may attack the Jets’ defense over the middle or from the slot. This plays into the strengths of tight ends Jonnu Smith (+410) and Pat Freiermuth (+460). Placing a half-unit on each offers a balanced approach, banking on Rodgers finding one in the end zone.
Verdict:
Justin Fields (+230)
Jonnu Smith (+410) & Pat Freiermuth (+460) (0.5U each)
Indianapolis Colts vs. Miami Dolphins: Dolphins’ Passing Game & Colts’ Deep Threat
Past matchups between these teams offer limited predictive value due to significant roster changes. Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa excels when facing minimal pressure and against defenses that rarely blitz. The Colts fit this profile, ranking low in blitz rate and pressure rate last season. If Indianapolis struggles to disrupt Miami’s motion offense, Tagovailoa could have a prolific day.
A compelling target for the Dolphins is WR3 Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (+650). He proved to be a lucrative Anytime TD bet last year, finishing with eight scores. Injuries to Tyreek Hill and Devon Achane further elevate NWI’s potential value. He also found the end zone against the Colts in both of their matchups last season.
The Colts, now with Daniel Jones at quarterback, still favor a run-heavy scheme. This makes betting on Colts pass-catchers challenging. Even in his best seasons, Jones rarely posted high passing touchdown numbers. However, WR3 Alec Pierce (+350) presents an intriguing option. Pierce consistently maintained his snap and target share regardless of other receivers’ presence. He also caught six of his seven touchdowns last season against zone defenses. The Dolphins’ secondary ranked in the bottom five against the deep ball and played zone at a top-10 rate, creating an ideal scenario for Pierce’s high Average Depth of Target (aDOT) of 24.
Verdict:
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (+650)
Alec Pierce (+350)
Carolina Panthers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: Young’s Legs & Strange’s Opportunity
Our initial projections align with expert consensus on Panthers QB Bryce Young and Jaguars TE Brenton Strange. Both show significant “edge” in their respective matchups. Young’s rushing ability makes him an attractive Anytime TD option. With a lack of established red-zone skill players, Young often opts to use his legs. He recorded four rushing touchdowns in his final four games last season. If the Jaguars’ defense struggles against the run while playing man coverage at a high rate, Young’s mobility could lead to a score at +600.
For Jacksonville, Brenton Strange steps into the TE1 role following Evan Engram’s departure. Strange finished second on the team in receiving yards last season despite a limited role. He scored both of his touchdowns when Engram was sidelined. The Panthers’ defense was particularly vulnerable to tight ends last season. They allowed 11 touchdowns to the position and ranked 31st in defensive DVOA against TEs. This presents a prime opportunity for Strange.
Washington Commanders vs. New York Giants: Nabers’ Man-Coverage Prowess & Daniels’ Scrambles
The Giants’ offense features rookie wide receiver Malik Nabers, who thrived against man coverage last season. His 2.24 yards-per-route-run and 36% target share against man schemes are impressive. Given the Commanders’ defense, under Dan Quinn, tends to play a lot of man coverage, Nabers (+155) is well-positioned for a touchdown.
For Washington, the Giants’ defense could pose an early challenge, especially with their strong pass rush. However, their pass defense struggled against WR1s last season. While Terry McLaurin is favored to score, his odds at +125 offer limited value, particularly with Deebo Samuel also demanding red-zone targets. Quarterback Jayden Daniels (+175) offers the best alternative for the Commanders. He led the NFL in scramble rate per game last season and demonstrated his rushing ability in the preseason. If Daniels’ odds don’t appeal, passing on Commanders scorers might be prudent.
Verdict:
Malik Nabers (+155)
Jayden Daniels (+175) (or pass)
Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals: Njoku’s Flacco Connection & Higgins’ Red Zone Impact
Browns tight end David Njoku emerges as a top Anytime TD pick for Week 1. Last season against the Bengals, Njoku garnered 24 targets and scored a touchdown, even with quarterback instability. With Joe Flacco returning, Njoku’s target rate per route run nearly doubled in their six games together. Flacco’s willingness to push the ball downfield creates scoring chances for his receivers. Moreover, the Bengals’ defense was among the bottom five in allowing targets, catches, yards, and touchdowns to tight ends last season, with minimal defensive improvements.
On the Bengals’ side, finding value is trickier. Joe Burrow heavily targets Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins in the red zone. However, their Anytime TD odds are often “steamed.” This reduces their betting value. Tee Higgins Anytime Touchdown (+115) is a compelling option based on external research. Despite injury concerns last season, Higgins notched a career-high 10 touchdowns. In games where both Higgins and Chase were active, Higgins maintained significant red-zone involvement, including a 28.2% red-zone target share and 41.2% end-zone target share. The Browns’ defense also ranked poorly against wideouts last season, ranking 27th in target rate and 32nd in yards per route run. This makes Higgins a high-probability scorer.
Verdict:
David Njoku (odds not provided, but strong pick based on analysis)
Tee Higgins (+115)
New England Patriots vs. Las Vegas Raiders: Maye’s Rushing & Tucker’s Long Shot Potential
For the Patriots, rookie quarterback Drake Maye presents a strong Anytime TD bet. Despite missing four games last season, Maye ranked fourth in total QB scrambles. Under Mike Vrabel, athletic quarterbacks often call their own number near the goal line. Maye’s nose for the end zone makes him a prime candidate until other Patriots playmakers emerge. Tight end Hunter Henry could be an option, but his performance suffers against zone defenses, which the Raiders are expected to deploy.
The Las Vegas Raiders offer a potential long-shot play with wide receiver Tre Tucker (+700). As defenses focus on Brock Bowers, Tucker’s role is set to expand. He scored four touchdowns last season despite inconsistent quarterback play. The Patriots’ pass defense, while potentially improved under Vrabel, still ranked 29th in defensive DVOA against the pass last season. Tucker provides an exciting, high-reward option.
Arizona Cardinals vs. New Orleans Saints: Shaheed’s Deep Threat & Wilson’s Value
The New Orleans Saints lack consistent offensive firepower, but wide receiver Rashid Shaheed is a genuine playmaker. He scored four touchdowns in six games last season before injury. The Cardinals’ pass defense was middle-of-the-pack but played zone coverage at a high rate (top 10). Shaheed historically performs well against zone schemes, making him an attractive pick at +370. New head coach Kellen Moore’s offensive scheme should create opportunities for deep passes to Shaheed. External research highlights Shaheed as a “dart throw” pick at +360, acknowledging his deep-ball threat capability and potential for “home run” plays, especially if the Saints are trailing.
For the Arizona Cardinals, rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. is heavily favored to score, pushing his odds as low as +125. This limited value makes him less appealing for a prop bet. Instead, consider WR2 Michael Wilson (+425) or long-shot WR3 Greg Dortch (+900). Wilson’s role has steadily grown, with increased snaps and route participation. Dortch, if involved in red-zone packages, could surprise; two of his three touchdowns last season came inside the 10-yard line. This strategy leans into high-value long shots over overvalued favorites.
Verdict:
Rashid Shaheed (+370)
Michael Wilson (+425)
Greg Dortch (+900) (Sprinkle)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons: Egbuka’s Immediate Impact & Pitts’ Zone Success
Ohio State rookie wide receiver Emeka Egbuka (Bucs) enters the NFL with significant fanfare and immediate opportunity. Injuries to Chris Godwin (likely out a month) and Jalen McMillan elevate Egbuka to the No. 2 receiver spot. While the Buccaneers’ offense might see some regression, Baker Mayfield’s deep-ball connection with Mike Evans should open up underneath routes for Egbuka. External research strongly supports Emeka Egbuka Anytime Touchdown (+210). FanDuel’s Daily Fantasy Projections rank Egbuka highly for a receiving touchdown. His odds are longer than other top candidates, suggesting excellent value. He also faces a favorable matchup against an Atlanta defense that struggled against wideouts last season. They ranked 31st in catch rate over expected and 32nd in receiving touchdowns allowed.
For the Atlanta Falcons, tight end Kyle Pitts consistently draws “breakout” predictions. He thrives against zone and Cover 3 defenses, which are Buccaneers’ specialties. Pitts scored three of his four touchdowns last season against zone coverages, including two against the Bucs. His receiving metrics significantly improved when facing zone. While a long-shot sprinkle on QB Michael Penix Jr. (+850) is an option, Pitts offers a more data-driven choice to finally live up to his potential.
Verdict:
Emeka Egbuka (+200 or better)
Kyle Pitts (odds not provided, but strong pick based on analysis)
Tennessee Titans vs. Denver Broncos: Ward’s Mobility & Mims Jr.’s Continued Ascent
Rookie quarterbacks often use their legs more in the NFL. This is due to the speed of defenses. Titans QB Will Levis will be looking to score with his legs. With RB2 Tyjae Sharp out, Levis’s rushing upside at +850 is appealing. He led all rookies in scramble rate last season despite missing time. This trend suggests value in betting on young, athletic QBs to score.
For the Denver Broncos, wide receiver Marvin Mims Jr. (+275) is poised for a significant year. He finished last season strong, scoring touchdowns in four of his final seven games. This included two multi-touchdown performances. As he enters his third year, his role is expected to expand. Quarterback Bo Nix is also projected to take a leap in Sean Payton’s offense. Mims Jr. is currently the most compelling Anytime TD option for the Broncos.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks: Charbonnet’s Edge & Darnold’s Value
The San Francisco 49ers are a dominant team, but their run defense surprisingly faltered last season. They made minimal offseason adjustments. This presents a key vulnerability. External research highlights the 49ers’ defense as allowing the fourth-most rushing touchdowns to running backs last season. This points towards the Seattle Seahawks’ ground game. While Kenneth Walker III (+125) dominates touches, RB2 Zach Charbonnet (+400) offers significant value. However, Charbonnet’s scoring often correlates with Walker’s absence.
Therefore, quarterback Sam Darnold (+850) becomes a compelling long shot. His price is higher than projected, and he has a history of scrambling for touchdowns. If you can secure +800 or better, Darnold’s rushing upside is worth a sprinkle. It is a loose reasoning, so be mindful.
Verdict:
Sam Darnold (+850) (Sprinkle, if odds are favorable)
- Pass on 49ers
- www.fanduel.com
- www.si.com
Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers: Williams’ Breakout & Doubs’ Man-Coverage Skill
Jameson Williams (Lions) has been a reliable Anytime TD bet due to his favorable odds. Last season, he scored eight touchdowns in 15 games. His odds routinely sat in the +190 to +210 range. At +240 for Week 1, he’s in a sweet spot. With his continued development and positive training camp reports, this could be the last time to bet Williams at odds above +200.
For the Green Bay Packers, Jayden Reed faces a foot injury. This could limit his mobility. His role is also primarily limited to 3WR sets. This reduces his value at +220. Instead, consider Romeo Doubs. He led the Packers in touchdowns against man coverage last season. The Lions’ defense ran man coverage at the highest rate in the NFL. This matchup favors Doubs to find the end zone.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Houston Texans: Adams’ Pedigree & Higgins’ Deep Threat Potential
The Houston Texans’ defense, under Demeco Ryans, boasts a formidable pass rush and coverage unit. They effectively mix man and zone coverages. This makes identifying a Rams touchdown scorer challenging. However, their weakness last season was Cover 4 defense, allowing the second-most touchdowns to wide receivers. This points to either Puka Nacua or Davante Adams. Adams, with his proven touchdown pedigree, holds a slight edge over Nacua, who is less of an end-zone threat despite his impressive catch volume.
On the Texans’ side, CJ Stroud will likely test the Rams’ secondary with deep balls. The Rams ranked in the bottom five for touchdowns allowed to wide receivers. They were also 28th in defensive DVOA against the deep ball. They played zone at a high rate with an emphasis on Cover 3. While Nico Collins (+140) matches these defensive liabilities, his odds are often below his projected value. Rookie wide receiver Jayden Higgins (+500) offers a better flier. As a full-time starter with excellent size and speed, Higgins could emerge as Stroud’s new deep threat.
Frequently Asked Questions
How do I identify the best NFL Anytime Touchdown Props for Week 1?
Identifying top NFL Anytime Touchdown Props involves comprehensive analysis of player roles, defensive matchups, and current betting odds. Look for players with high red-zone usage, favorable defensive liabilities (e.g., poor run defense against mobile QBs, weak zone coverage against deep threats), and historical performance trends. Also, assess value by comparing published odds against your own projections, targeting players where the market might be underestimating their scoring probability.
Which players offer the best value for Anytime Touchdown bets in Week 1, according to this analysis?
This analysis highlights several high-value Anytime Touchdown bets for Week 1. Key picks include Justin Fields (+230) for his rushing upside, Jonnu Smith (+410) and Pat Freiermuth (+460) as a tight end duo for the Steelers, and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (+650) for the Dolphins due to increased opportunity. Rookie Emeka Egbuka (+210) and Tee Higgins (+115) also offer strong value due to favorable matchups and increased roles, according to external research.
What defensive matchups should I look for when betting on Anytime Touchdown scorers?
When selecting Anytime Touchdown scorers, prioritize defensive matchups that exploit a player’s strengths. For mobile quarterbacks like Justin Fields or Drake Maye, target defenses that struggle against the run or play high rates of man coverage. For wide receivers such as Malik Nabers or Tee Higgins, look for secondaries weak against man coverage, deep balls, or specific zone schemes (like the Browns’ struggles against wideouts). For tight ends like David Njoku or Brenton Strange, seek out defenses with poor DVOA or high touchdown allowances to the position.
