As the 2025 MLB draft approaches this Sunday, the anticipation is building! Expert analyst Kiley McDaniel has released his latest projection, Mock Draft 3.0, offering a detailed look at how the first two rounds could unfold. This forecast arrives at a pivotal moment, especially with significant uncertainty surrounding the top overall pick. Get ready for a deep dive into the potential landing spots for the draft’s top prospects and the strategic decisions teams might face.
Navigating Uncertainty at the Top
The drama for the 2025 MLB draft kicks off right at the very top. The Washington Nationals hold the No. 1 pick, but their decision has become more complex following the recent firing of General Manager Mike Rizzo. This change at the helm introduces a new variable into an already challenging pick.
This year’s class lacks a single, undisputed “slam dunk” top player. Instead, a group of elite prospects sits at the top, creating a fascinating puzzle for teams picking early. Leading the charge are Oklahoma high school sensation Ethan Holliday (son of former big leaguer Matt Holliday) and a talented quartet of college left-handed pitchers: Kade Anderson from LSU, Liam Doyle from Tennessee, and Jamie Arnold from Florida State.
According to McDaniel’s analysis, the Nationals’ choice at No. 1 appears to favor Anderson, with approximately a 55% probability. Ethan Holliday is seen as the next most likely option at 35%, while other players like Eli Willits or Liam Doyle represent a smaller 10% chance. The shift away from potential high-upside prep righty Seth Hernandez towards possibly “cut-rate options” like Willits or Doyle might be another effect of the interim general manager, Mike DeBartolo, steering the ship instead of Rizzo.
Following the Nationals, the Los Angeles Angels and Seattle Mariners hold the crucial No. 2 and No. 3 selections, respectively, positions that could significantly impact the rest of the first round based on Washington’s ultimate decision.
Projecting the First Round: Picks 1-15
McDaniel’s mock draft provides a pick-by-pick breakdown, offering insight into potential team strategies and player availability. Here’s how he projects the first half of Round 1:
The First Five Selections
1. Washington Nationals: Kade Anderson, LHP, LSU
Rank: 1
As noted, the GM change adds considerable uncertainty. Industry buzz suggests this makes Anderson slightly more likely.
2. Los Angeles Angels: Liam Doyle, LHP, Tennessee
Rank: 6
Doyle has been linked here consistently. His potential to take a below-slot deal and his readiness to reach the big leagues quickly make him appealing. The Angels might be aggressive, letting him debut soon and developing him long-term. Kade Anderson is considered the top player on their board if he slips past No. 1. Other options include Jamie Arnold or Ike Irish for a potential cost saving.
3. Seattle Mariners: Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona HS (CA)
Rank: 4
Despite the historical risk of prep right-handers, the Mariners seem increasingly comfortable with Hernandez after evaluating many prospects. Jamie Arnold is the projected runner-up here, with Kade Anderson being the top player on their overall board.
4. Colorado Rockies: Ethan Holliday, 3B, Stillwater HS (OK)
Rank: 2
Rumors have long tied Holliday to the Rockies at this pick, fueled by team preference and his father Matt’s history with the club. If he doesn’t go first overall, this is widely considered his most probable landing spot. It’s even speculated he could receive the largest bonus of this draft era to ensure this outcome.
5. St. Louis Cardinals: Eli Willits, SS, Fort Cobb-Broxton HS (OK)
Rank: 3
McDaniel sees the Cardinals’ draft board closely mirroring his own, placing Anderson and Holliday ahead of Willits. He projects Willits here, though Jamie Arnold is a close alternative, and Ike Irish represents a slight cost-saving option.
Continuing Through the Lottery
6. Pittsburgh Pirates: Aiva Arquette, SS, Oregon State
Rank: 9
If Seth Hernandez is gone, the Pirates seem to lean towards a college hitter. Arquette has been mentioned here for months, with Ike Irish as the alternative. Jamie Arnold is also a potential target if he falls.
7. Miami Marlins: JoJo Parker, SS, Purvis HS (MS)
Rank: 7
The Marlins are believed to be targeting Eli Willits initially, with Parker as the primary backup. Jamie Arnold is another player they have interest in if he slides. McDaniel leans Parker over Arnold at this spot.
8. Toronto Blue Jays: Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State
Rank: 5
Arnold was high on McDaniel’s board entering the year, but inconsistent performance has led to varied opinions among teams. This spot is considered his likely landing spot in this scenario, often paired sequentially with JoJo Parker, though Arnold has a real possibility of going much higher.
9. Cincinnati Reds: Ike Irish, RF, Auburn
Rank: 11
Irish is expected to go around this range. Uncertainty exists regarding the Reds’ choice if top players like Seth Hernandez or Liam Doyle are unavailable. Other leading options linked here include Steele Hall, Billy Carlson, and Kyson Witherspoon.
10. Chicago White Sox: Billy Carlson, SS, Corona HS (CA)
Rank: 8
Carlson is in play for many teams from pick five onward, with this range being a likely landing spot. The White Sox might favor JoJo Parker, but he’s projected gone here. Steele Hall and Josh Hammond are other high school hitters tied to this pick.
Rounding Out the First Half
11. Athletics: Kyson Witherspoon, RHP, Oklahoma
Rank: 10
Predicting picks becomes more difficult at this point. The Athletics appear to be leaning towards pitching, and Witherspoon represents a solid value around his projected floor. This pick is likely to be a college player.
12. Texas Rangers: Steele Hall, SS, Hewitt-Trussville HS (AL)
Rank: 13
This pick is seen as the floor for Billy Carlson if he were to slide. Hall seems to be the next target, suggesting a focus on prep position players for Texas.
13. San Francisco Giants: Brendan Summerhill, CF, Arizona
Rank: 14
The Giants’ tendencies point towards a left-handed college hitter, similar to their previous picks. Summerhill fits this profile, as do Ike Irish (if available) or potentially Andrew Fischer.
14. Tampa Bay Rays: Jaden Fauske, RF, Nazareth Academy HS (IL)
Rank: 31
The Rays possess extra picks, influencing their strategy. With their primary targets (Carlson, Hall) gone, they might opt for a “gambit” – selecting a player they highly value (like Fauske, ranked lower) earlier than expected to ensure they get him, banking bonus savings for later picks.
15. Boston Red Sox: Gavin Fien, 3B, Great Oak HS (CA)
Rank: 12
Fien has long been rumored to land around this pick. His perceived undervaluation after an uneven spring makes him a potential value selection for Boston.
Deep Dive into Round 1: Picks 16-30
As teams move further down the board, projections rely more heavily on team history, tendencies, and industry buzz. The middle and late first round feature teams leveraging extra picks, targeting specific player profiles, and sometimes making surprising value plays.
Team Tendencies and Strategic Picks
16. Minnesota Twins: Gavin Kilen, SS, Tennessee
Rank: 20
The Twins frequently target polished college infielders with strong performance records, a profile Kilen fits well.
17. Chicago Cubs: Josh Hammond, 3B, Wesleyan Christian HS (NC)
Rank: 17
The Cubs show a preference for high schoolers with strong exit velocities and athleticism, characteristics Hammond embodies.
18. Arizona Diamondbacks: Caden Bodine, C, Coastal Carolina
Rank: 23
Rumors suggest Bodine is a strong possibility here, potentially setting up the Diamondbacks to focus on prep players with their subsequent picks.
19. Baltimore Orioles: Wehiwa Aloy, SS, Arkansas
Rank: 15
With three total compensation picks this year, the Orioles are positioned to target slot-value or slightly below college players early, then focus on high school players later. Aloy fits their typical player profile and is seen as good value here.
20. Milwaukee Brewers: Marek Houston, SS, Wake Forest
Rank: 22
The Brewers are linked to several shortstops here. While Coy James could be a surprise comp round pick, Houston falls within the middle of his expected range.
21. Houston Astros: Jace LaViolette, CF, Texas A&M
Rank: 21
The Astros tend to target power-over-hit prospects with impressive athletic metrics in this range. LaViolette fits this mold, as do Xavier Neyens and Tate Southisene.
22. Atlanta Braves: Tyler Bremner, RHP, UC Santa Barbara
Rank: 18
Bremner is considered a target for teams picking ahead, but this spot is his likely floor. Gage Wood and Marek Houston are also mentioned possibilities.
23. Kansas City Royals: Gage Wood, RHP, Arkansas
Rank: 16
This appears to be a solid landing spot for Wood, potentially paired with a high school player selection at the Royals’ next pick.
24. Detroit Tigers: Daniel Pierce, SS, Mill Creek HS (GA)
Rank: 19
Detroit is expected to target high school prospects with at least one of their first two picks. While Coy James could be a surprise here, Pierce is considered more likely.
25. San Diego Padres: Quentin Young, 3B, Oaks Christian HS (CA)
Rank: 36
The Padres frequently swing for high-upside players, and Young represents an extreme version with elite power projection but questions about his hitting consistency.
26. Philadelphia Phillies: Matthew Fisher, RHP, Evansville Memorial HS (IN)
Rank: 44
This pick would be a surprise based on rankings, but the Phillies might take Fisher here if they believe he won’t reach their next pick, enabling over-slot signings later.
27. Cleveland Guardians: Tate Southisene, SS, Basic HS (NV)
Rank: 37
The Guardians are unpredictable here. They could go under slot with a college player to save bonus pool money for later picks, or target prep players like Southisene who might not be available later.
28. Kansas City Royals: Aaron Watson, RHP, Trinity Christian HS (FL)
Rank: 32
Watson is one of several prep arms linked to the Royals. If not taken here, he’s expected to go very soon after.
29. Arizona Diamondbacks: Slater de Brun, CF, Summit HS (OR)
Rank: 34
If the Diamondbacks take a college player earlier, they are likely to target a prep player here like de Brun (if Southisene is gone).
Compensation & Round 2: Picks 30-75
The draft continues with compensation picks and the second round, offering more opportunities for teams to find value, target specific needs, and manage their bonus pools.
Starting the Second Wave
30. Baltimore Orioles: Xavier Neyens, 3B, Mount Vernon HS (Wa.)
Rank: 26
Neyens could potentially go earlier, but the Orioles’ large bonus pool could allow them to secure him at this value pick.
31. Baltimore Orioles: Andrew Fischer, 3B, Tennessee
Rank: 24
Fischer could also land much higher but is projected to find a home in this range if available.
32. Milwaukee Brewers: Kayson Cunningham, SS, Johnson HS (Texas)
Rank: 25
This pick offers excellent value for the Brewers, a team known for finding undervalued players. He might require an over-slot bonus to ensure he falls to this pick.
33. Boston Red Sox: Marcus Phillips, RHP, Tennessee
Rank: 40
Phillips is among several pitchers and position players the Red Sox could target here.
34. Detroit Tigers: Coy James, SS, Davie County HS (N.C.)
Rank: 69
This is considered the most probable landing spot for James, who could otherwise be a surprise earlier pick for teams seeking upside.
35. Seattle Mariners: Zach Root, LHP, Arkansas
Rank: 48
Root is in play for many teams throughout this range and is unlikely to last past the early 40s.
Finishing the Projections
Here is a list of Kiley McDaniel’s remaining projections for the first two rounds:
36. Minnesota Twins: Devin Taylor, LF, Indiana (Rank: 39)
37. Baltimore Orioles: Dax Kilby, SS, Newnan HS (GA) (Rank: 28) – Good value pick leveraging extra pool money.
38. New York Mets: Patrick Forbes, RHP, Louisville (Rank: 33) – Unlikely to last past the comp round.
39. New York Yankees: J.B. Middleton, RHP, Southern Miss (Rank: 42) – Floor for Fischer/Kilby if they slide.
40. Los Angeles Dodgers: Cam Cannarella, CF, Clemson (Rank: 27) – Fits the profile for a team linked to high-ceiling players.
41. Los Angeles Dodgers: Kruz Schoolcraft, LHP, Sunset HS (OR) (Rank: 30) – Another high-upside prep target for LA.
42. Tampa Bay Rays: Anthony Eyanson, RHP, LSU (Rank: 51)
43. Miami Marlins: Charles Davalan, LF, Arkansas (Rank: 45)
44. Chicago White Sox: Ethan Conrad, RF, Wake Forest (Rank: 46)
45. Colorado Rockies: Sean Gamble, 2B, IMG Academy HS (FL) (Rank: 54)
46. Miami Marlins: Josh Owens, SS, Providence Academy HS (TN) (Rank: 53)
47. Los Angeles Angels: Max Belyeu, RF, Texas (Rank: 50)
48. Athletics: Alex Lodise, SS, Florida State (Rank: 47)
49. Washington Nationals: J.D. Thompson, LHP, Vanderbilt (Rank: 60)
50. Pittsburgh Pirates: Luke Stevenson, C, North Carolina (Rank: 55)
51. Cincinnati Reds: Taitn Gray, C, Grimes Community HS (IA) (Rank: 56)
52. Texas Rangers: Michael Oliveto, C, Hauppauge HS (NY) (Rank: 57)
53. Tampa Bay Rays: Dean Moss, CF, IMG Academy HS (FL) (Rank: 73)
54. Minnesota Twins: Brandon Compton, LF, Arizona State (Rank: 58)
55. St. Louis Cardinals: Cooper Flemming, SS, Aliso Niguel HS (CA) (Rank: 59)
56. Chicago Cubs: Josiah Hartshorn, LF, Orange Lutheran HS (CA) (Rank: 61)
57. Seattle Mariners: Malachi Witherspoon, RHP, Oklahoma (Rank: 62)
58. Baltimore Orioles: Mason Neville, CF, Oregon (Rank: 65)
59. Milwaukee Brewers: Chase Shores, RHP, LSU (Rank: 74)
60. Atlanta Braves: Kane Kepley, CF, North Carolina (Rank: 66)
61. Kansas City Royals: Riley Quick, RHP, Alabama (Rank: 68)
62. Detroit Tigers: Mitch Voit, 2B, Michigan (Rank: 70)
63. Philadelphia Phillies: Alec Blair, CF, De La Salle HS (CA) (Rank: 71) – Also a top basketball recruit.
64. Cleveland Guardians: Jordan Yost, SS, Sickles HS (FL) (Rank: 75)
65. Los Angeles Dodgers: Aidan West, SS, Long Reach HS (MD) (Rank: 72)
66. Cleveland Guardians: Cade Obermueller, LHP, Iowa (Rank: 78)
67. Tampa Bay Rays: A.J. Russell, RHP, Tennessee (Rank: 82)
68. Milwaukee Brewers: Dean Curley, 3B, Tennessee (Rank: 83)
69. Baltimore Orioles: Korbyn Dickerson, CF, Indiana (Rank: 84)
70. Cleveland Guardians: Aiden Stillman, LHP, Trinity Prep HS (FL) (Rank: 88)
71. Kansas City Royals: Angel Cervantes, RHP, Warren HS (CA) (Rank: 89)
72. St. Louis Cardinals: Briggs McKenzie, LHP, Corinth Holders HS (NC) (Rank: 90)
73. Pittsburgh Pirates: Ethan Petry, 1B, South Carolina (Rank: 91)
74. Colorado Rockies: James Quinn-Irons, CF, George Mason (Rank: 93)
- 75. Boston Red Sox: Jake Cook, CF, Southern Miss (Rank: 94)
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to be the top overall pick in Kiley McDaniel’s 2025 MLB Mock Draft 3.0?
In his latest projection, Kiley McDaniel predicts LSU left-handed pitcher Kade Anderson will be selected first overall by the Washington Nationals. This projection, however, comes with significant uncertainty due to recent changes in the Nationals’ front office. Anderson is given approximately a 55% chance to be the pick in this scenario.
Are there any other versions of Kiley McDaniel’s 2025 MLB mock draft available?
Yes, Kiley McDaniel indicates that this Mock Draft 3.0 is his second-to-last version before the draft begins. He plans to release an updated 3.1 version just hours before Round 1 starts on Sunday, July 13th, providing the absolute latest insights before picks are officially made.
Beyond the top players, what strategic factors influence teams’ draft picks?
Teams employ various strategies, including targeting players likely to sign for below “slot value” (the recommended bonus amount for each pick) to save money for over-slot bonuses elsewhere, particularly with extra compensation picks (like the Rays and Orioles possess). Teams also prioritize players based on internal scouting boards, player development philosophies (e.g., focusing on college vs. high school talent, specific athletic traits like exit velocity), or even unique connections like a player’s family history with the organization (e.g., Ethan Holliday and the Rockies).
Conclusion
Kiley McDaniel’s Mock Draft 3.0 provides a comprehensive look at the complex and unpredictable landscape of the 2025 MLB draft’s first two rounds. From the Nationals’ pivotal decision at No. 1 to teams leveraging bonus pools and targeting specific player profiles later in the draft, every pick presents a unique challenge and opportunity. With the draft just days away, expect more rumors and shifting projections, culminating in McDaniel’s final update before the picks officially get underway Sunday evening.
