Sports betting markets are signaling an unprecedented level of certainty regarding the 2025 NBA Draft’s top selection. Duke star Cooper Flagg has become the central figure, with his odds to be the No. 1 overall pick reaching extraordinary heights at multiple sportsbooks just hours before the draft on June 25, 2025.
Flagg’s odds have climbed as high as -100,000 across prominent platforms like FanDuel, Hard Rock Bet, and Caesars Sportsbook. This valuation is exceptionally rare in the American betting landscape, reserved for outcomes considered virtually guaranteed. To put this in perspective, a bettor would need to risk a massive $1,000 just to win $1 on Flagg going first overall. While other sportsbooks showed slightly less extreme odds, such as -50,000 at ESPN BET or -10,000 at BetMGM, the overwhelming consensus reflects a near-unanimous expectation.
What These Extreme Odds Signify
This level of pre-draft certainty, reflected in the -100,000 odds, was previously seen before Victor Wembanyama was selected first overall by the San Antonio Spurs in the 2023 NBA Draft. Sportsbook traders openly state that Flagg’s prohibitive pricing is “a function of our expectations that he will almost assuredly be the pick.” They add that despite the extreme odds, they keep the market open to allow customers to bet on “the most talked about player.”
Flagg’s journey to this point isn’t a sudden surge. He was widely considered the No. 1 overall consensus prospect in the 2024 national recruiting cycle even before arriving at Duke. Following a standout collegiate season in 2025 where he earned national college player of the year honors and was a consensus All-American, his status as the presumptive top pick solidified, making him the expected choice for the Dallas Mavericks, who hold the No. 1 selection.
Betting Trends Beyond the Top Favorite
Despite the incredibly short odds, Cooper Flagg is still attracting significant attention from bettors. On FanDuel, he accounted for a staggering 95% of the money wagered on the No. 1 pick market. However, he represented only 10% of the total bets placed. This indicates that while large sums are being bet on Flagg, a greater number of individual bets are being placed on longshot candidates hoping for a massive payday.
Prospects like Rutgers’ Dylan Harper (listed as high as 200-1) attracted significantly more individual bets than Flagg, drawing roughly four times the bet count on FanDuel’s market. Other players like Rutgers’ Ace Bailey (200-1) and Baylor’s VJ Edgecombe (250-1) also saw betting interest for the top spot.
Near Certainty, But Not Absolute
Sportsbook executives like Neil Walsh, senior vice president of sportsbook for Hard Rock Bet, emphasize that while Flagg’s odds are “highly unusual” and “as close to a certainty as our system can handle,” even -100,000 odds are not a guarantee. Walsh cited a past instance where a -100,000 bet during the NHL season on the Montreal Canadiens to miss the playoffs ultimately lost when the team rallied late to make it.
This serves as a reminder that while the implied probability is overwhelming, the rare exception is still possible. Nevertheless, betting on Cooper Flagg to go No. 1 remains the most popular market for the draft, highlighting its role as an engagement point for fans invested in the outcome.
As the 2025 NBA Draft unfolds, all signs from the betting world point decisively towards Cooper Flagg making history as a near-certain top pick, ready to begin his professional career with the Dallas Mavericks.
