Pixar, the studio synonymous with animated blockbusters, recently faced a stark reality check at the box office. Its latest original film, Elio, launched with a record-low opening weekend, immediately sparking conversations about whether it could be the studio’s biggest theatrical underperformer to date. However, as industry observers are quick to point out, past performance, particularly the surprising journey of Elemental, suggests it might be too early to write Elio‘s final chapter.
A Historically Low Launch
Despite hitting approximately 3,750 theaters, Elio, an animated adventure about an alien-abduction-obsessed orphan mistaken for Earth’s intergalactic ambassador, debuted with a disappointing $21 million in North America and roughly $35 million globally. Against a reported production budget of $150 million (before marketing costs), this performance marks the lowest opening weekend in Pixar’s history. For context, the original Toy Story, released in 1995 with significantly lower ticket prices and fewer theaters, earned $29.1 million in its first three days, which would be equivalent to over $60 million today when adjusted for inflation.
Elio‘s opening weekend placed it third among wide releases, significantly trailing established IP like Universal’s live-action How to Train Your Dragon remake, which was in its second weekend and pulled in $37 million, and even Disney’s own Lilo & Stitch remake, in its fifth weekend with $9.7 million.
A Troubling Trend for Pixar Originals
While Pixar continues to shatter records with sequels – Inside Out 2 grossed nearly $1.7 billion globally – its original properties have struggled to find theatrical footing since Coco in 2017. Films like Onward (affected by the pandemic), Lightyear (a spinoff focusing on a new character iteration), and Elemental all faced difficulties at launch. Adding to this challenge, three original Pixar films – Soul, Luca, and Turning Red – bypassed traditional theatrical releases entirely, going straight to Disney+ during the height of the pandemic.
Many analysts believe this streaming strategy inadvertently “trained” audiences to expect original Pixar content at home, making it harder to compel them back to cinemas for non-sequels. Compounding this, the post-pandemic theatrical landscape seems to favor either established, familiar franchises or something perceived as vastly different and unique, raising the bar for original concepts to break through.
Factors Behind Elio‘s Underperformance
Several potential reasons contribute to Elio‘s weak start:
Stiff Competition & Timing: Releasing just one week after a major family competitor like How to Train Your Dragon and alongside the continued strong performance of Lilo & Stitch meant Elio was buried amidst familiar options. Minimal marketing presence compared to competing films and upcoming summer blockbusters also hampered awareness.
Streaming Hangover: The theory that audiences were conditioned to watch original Pixar films on Disney+ likely played a role.
High Production Costs: Pixar’s commitment to producing films entirely in the U.S. results in higher budgets ($150M for Elio) compared to some competitors, requiring a larger box office haul just to break even.
Production & Creative Challenges: Elio reportedly faced a turbulent production, with director changes and a tonal evolution from a personal coming-of-age story to a more conventional sci-fi romp. This, combined with multiple credited screenwriters, suggests a “too many cooks” scenario that some critics argue resulted in an overly complex, rambling narrative potentially disconnected from core audience expectations for streamlined family entertainment.
Perceived Narrow Appeal: Some insiders feel the choice to make the protagonist an 11-year-old limited appeal to older demographics, with the film potentially looking “too young” for teens compared to titles like Inside Out 2. Audience data showing a significantly higher percentage of viewers under 12 for Elio (39%) compared to Inside Out 2 (20%) supports the idea of a narrower target audience.
The Elemental Parallel: A Glimmer of Hope?
Despite the grim opening numbers, there’s a precedent for a potential rebound: 2023’s Elemental. That film also opened poorly, setting a then-record low for Pixar with $29.6 million, and initially received mixed reviews. However, Elemental demonstrated incredible “legs” at the box office, benefiting from positive word-of-mouth and a lack of direct family competition over subsequent weeks. It eventually legged out to nearly $500 million globally, found massive success on Disney+, earned an Oscar nomination, and became one of the most profitable films of 2023.
Crucially, like Elemental, Elio has received a positive reception from initial audiences, earning an “A” CinemaScore. While critic reviews are currently 84% “Fresh” on Rotten Tomatoes (higher than Elemental‘s initial score), the strong audience score suggests word-of-mouth could build. With a major holiday weekend approaching, there’s a possibility Elio could see a similar slow-burn trajectory.
Looking Ahead: A Shift Back to Familiarity?
Elio‘s rocky debut, coupled with the colossal success of Inside Out 2, reinforces the current market’s preference for known quantities. While Pixar needs new original stories to replenish its franchise pipeline long-term, the immediate future appears heavily focused on established IP. Sequels like Toy Story 5, Incredibles 3, and Coco 2 are reportedly in development, suggesting a strategic pivot towards the studio’s proven successes in the wake of recent original underperformances.
Whether Elio can defy expectations and follow Elemental‘s path to profitability remains to be seen. Its opening is undeniably weak, highlighting the significant challenges facing original animation in theaters today. But with positive audience buzz and favorable release window potential ahead, the final verdict on Elio*’s box office fate is still pending.
