Fragile Truce Holds After 12 Days of Israel-Iran Conflict
A ceasefire between Israel and Iran, brokered by U.S. President Donald Trump, appears to be holding following 12 days of intense military exchanges that had escalated fears of a wider Middle East conflict. Trump declared the truce effective on Tuesday, June 24, 2025, though its implementation saw immediate challenges and sparked debate over the true impact of recent U.S. and Israeli strikes.
The conflict, which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu referred to as a “12-day war,” began with Israel targeting Iranian nuclear and military facilities, citing intelligence that Tehran was significantly advancing toward nuclear weapons capability. Iran maintained its nuclear program was for peaceful purposes and retaliated, including a limited missile strike on a U.S. military base in Qatar, which houses American troops. The United States had joined the fray days earlier, launching strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, including Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan.
Trump’s Pivotal Role in Securing the Pause
President Trump was central to the ceasefire announcement. He stated the deal was in effect, later using social media to emphatically declare, “ISRAEL is not going to attack Iran. All planes will turn around and head home… The Ceasefire is in effect!” This followed a period of visible frustration from the American leader, who initially accused both sides of violating the nascent agreement.
Reports indicated that hours after the ceasefire was meant to begin, Israel accused Iran of firing missiles into its airspace, a claim Iran’s military denied. Explosions and sirens were reported across northern Israel, and an Israeli military official confirmed two Iranian missiles were intercepted. Israel’s finance minister had vowed “Tehran will tremble.”
Trump publicly criticized both nations, expressing particular disappointment with Israel, a close ally. In candid remarks, he used strong language, suggesting both countries seemed unsure of their actions. He also directly intervened, reportedly calling Prime Minister Netanyahu to demand a halt to further bombing and issuing directives via social media like “DO NOT DROP THOSE BOMBS” and “BRING YOUR PILOTS HOME, NOW!”
Netanyahu’s office later confirmed that Israel had conducted a strike on an Iranian radar installation in response to what it called an Iranian violation of the truce but refrained from a larger response after the conversation with President Trump. Qatar also played a mediating role, reportedly persuading Iran to accept the U.S.-proposed ceasefire after the strike on the U.S. base there.
Trump stated he was not seeking regime change in Iran, clarifying earlier musings, and expected the ceasefire to be “unlimited” and last “forever.”
Conflicting Assessments of Strike Effectiveness
A significant point of contention emerging alongside the ceasefire is the actual impact of the U.S. and Israeli military strikes on Iran’s nuclear program. While President Trump publicly declared the targeted sites “completely and totally obliterated” and Prime Minister Netanyahu hailed a “historic victory” claiming Israel had “dismantled the Iranian nuclear project” and set it back “by years,” classified assessments from U.S. intelligence agencies offered a more cautious view.
According to U.S. officials privy to classified briefings, an initial assessment by the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) suggested the strikes likely only set back Iran’s nuclear program by a few months, potentially three to six. The report indicated that core components like centrifuges might not have been destroyed and a significant portion of Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile could have been moved to other locations before the strikes. Outside experts also expressed skepticism that military force alone, including claims of targeting Iranian scientists, could eradicate Iran’s nuclear knowledge.
This discrepancy between public declarations and intelligence findings sparked debate in the U.S., with some members of Congress questioning the administration’s portrayal of the strikes’ success. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, however, publicly maintained that the bombing campaign “obliterated Iran’s ability to create nuclear weapons.”
Lingering Tensions and Future Uncertainty
Despite the declared ceasefire, officials on both sides suggested the broader confrontation was far from over. Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that while Israel had achieved its war goals against Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile threats, the campaign against the “Iranian axis” must be completed, including defeating Hamas and securing the release of hostages from Gaza. Israeli military officials echoed this, stating the “campaign against Iran is not over,” merely entering a new phase. Netanyahu vowed Israel would strike again if Iran attempted to rebuild its nuclear project.
Iran’s Foreign Minister indicated Iran was willing to return to negotiations over its nuclear program but insisted on asserting its “legitimate rights” and stated that returning to talks was conditional on a “halt to aggression.” He also asserted that Iran’s nuclear program “continues.” Iranian media reported casualties and damage from Israeli strikes, including civilians, and the country’s Atomic Energy Organization stated measures were taken to ensure the program’s continuation.
Regional stability remains fragile. The strike on the U.S. base in Qatar, though intercepted, drew a strong condemnation from the Qatari government as an “unacceptable” violation of its sovereignty. Drone attacks were also reported on military bases in Iraq hosting U.S. troops.
Internationally, the ceasefire was largely welcomed, with the UN, EU, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and China urging parties to respect it and calling for a return to diplomacy. India facilitated the evacuation of its nationals from both Israel and Iran. The EU warned it might reactivate sanctions on Iran if a satisfactory agreement on its nuclear program wasn’t reached soon.
While the ceasefire offers a crucial pause after a volatile 12-day period, the underlying tensions, conflicting narratives on strike effectiveness, and statements from officials suggesting the broader campaign is ongoing leave significant uncertainty about the long-term de-escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran. Israeli citizens reportedly reacted calmly to Trump’s criticisms, viewing them as minor scolding from a key ally and expressing gratitude for his intervention.
