The path to the PFL World Championship finals runs through Wichita, Kansas, this week, as the 2025 PFL World Tournament 6 event features crucial semifinal matchups. Fighters across the lightweight, bantamweight, and women’s flyweight divisions step into the SmartCage at INTRUST Bank Arena with a coveted spot in the season-ending championship on the line.
Broadcast live on ESPN and ESPN+, the card is stacked with pivotal bouts featuring established names and rising contenders. To gauge the likely outcomes, we look at the collective wisdom of 11 expert editors, writers, and analysts from MMA Junkie, combining their insights with analysis drawn from other sources.
Here’s a breakdown of the key semifinal fights and how the experts see them playing out:
Lightweight Semifinals
The lightweight division (155 lbs) features hard-hitting contenders vying for the championship final.
Gadzhi Rabadanov (25-4-2) vs. Kevin Lee (20-8)
Odds (06.20.25): Rabadanov -1800, Lee +1000
Junkie Pick Results: Rabadanov 10, Lee 1
Gadzhi Rabadanov, the defending lightweight tournament winner, enters this semifinal as a massive favorite. Known for his ferocious striking power and an impressive 11-fight winning streak, Rabadanov recently secured his spot with a rapid 30-second knockout. His opponent, Kevin Lee, is a former UFC title challenger making his PFL debut as a replacement. While Lee possesses strong grappling skills with multiple submission wins, his recent form has been inconsistent. Despite Rabadanov’s overwhelming favor with oddsmakers and the panel, some analysts acknowledge Lee’s significant experience against top-tier competition and his six-inch reach advantage as potential factors that could make him a “live dog” if he can avoid Rabadanov’s power early and utilize his ground game.
Alfie Davis (18-5-1) vs. Brent Primus (16-4)
Odds (06.20.25): Primus -205, Davis +170
Junkie Pick Results: Primus 8, Davis 3
Former Bellator Lightweight Champion Brent Primus looks to return to the PFL finals, facing Alfie Davis. Primus is favored by both the odds and the majority of the expert panel. Known for his potent ground game and experience in high-stakes fights, Primus aims to leverage his mat skills. Davis, a fighter with a diverse skill set and proven durability, presents a tough challenge. Experts see Primus’s grappling base and perceived determination to reach the finals again as key factors, while Davis could pose a threat if the fight stays standing.
Bantamweight Semifinals
The bantamweight division (135 lbs) showcases speed and technical skill in these two crucial matchups.
Justin Wetzell (11-2) vs. Mando Gutierrez (11-3)
Odds (06.20.25): Wetzell -200, Gutierrez +165
Junkie Pick Results: Wetzell 6, Gutierrez 5
This bantamweight semifinal appears to be the most closely contested according to the MMA Junkie panel, with Justin Wetzell holding a slight edge in the picks (6-5). Wetzell is also the moderate betting favorite. Both fighters boast similar records and recent form. Wetzell possesses knockout power and has proven difficult to finish, while Gutierrez is primarily known for his submission prowess. Analysts suggest Wetzell’s striking advantage could be decisive unless Gutierrez can successfully implement his ground game.
Marcirley Alves da Silva (13-4) vs. Jake Hadley (12-4)
Odds (06.20.25): Hadley -150, da Silva +125
Junkie Pick Results: Hadley 11, da Silva 0
Jake Hadley received a clean sweep from the MMA Junkie panel, with all 11 experts picking him to advance to the bantamweight final. Marcirley Alves da Silva, while having a strong record with significant knockout power, has shown vulnerability to submissions. Hadley, slightly favored by the odds, is known for his solid ground skills and durability, having rarely been finished. Experts believe Hadley’s submission defense and overall grappling, combined with a slight reach advantage, give him the edge against da Silva’s power striking.
Women’s Flyweight Semifinals
The women’s flyweight division (125 lbs) features veteran stars and undefeated prospects.
Liz Carmouche (23-8) vs. Elora Dana (8-0)
Odds (06.20.25): Carmouche -425, Dana +330
Junkie Pick Results: Carmouche 10, Dana 1
Veteran standout and former Bellator champion Liz Carmouche is the overwhelming favorite in her semifinal bout. With a wealth of experience against the sport’s elite and a strong track record of finishes via both strikes and submissions, Carmouche is heavily backed by oddsmakers and the expert panel. She faces the undefeated Elora Dana, a former champion from Jungle Fights with a perfect 8-0 record and a BJJ black belt. While Dana is an intriguing prospect with finishing ability, analysts lean heavily on Carmouche’s proven ability to control fights through wrestling and ground pressure, believing her experience and grappling pedigree will be too much for the less seasoned Dana, despite the underdog’s potential value.
Jena Bishop (8-2) vs. Katerina Shakalova (9-2)
Odds (06.20.25): Bishop -165, Shakalova +140
Junkie Pick Results: Bishop 7, Shakalova 4
Jena Bishop holds the favor of the majority of the expert panel and the oddsmakers in this women’s flyweight semifinal. Bishop possesses a strong grappling game, accounting for half of her career wins via submission. She faces Katerina Shakalova, who is ranked #15 and is 12 years younger than Bishop. While Bishop has height and reach advantages, Shakalova has better recent form and is considered skilled on the ground herself. Experts anticipate a competitive fight but ultimately lean towards Bishop’s experience and grappling effectiveness.
The PFL World Tournament 6 promises an action-packed night as these athletes battle for a shot at championship glory and the coveted PFL season prize. The expert picks reveal clear favorites in several bouts, but as always in MMA, the possibility of an upset looms large.