Expert Take: Early Winners & Losers of 2025 NBA Free Agency

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The 2025 NBA free agency period officially tipped off on July 1st at 6 p.m. ET, coinciding with the league setting the salary cap for the new season at $154.647 million – a 10% jump from the prior year. Despite the usual anticipation, the initial wave of moves felt more like a ripple than a splash for many. While some teams made aggressive plays and others strategically positioned themselves for the future, the opening night was widely described as a “mostly dud” compared to previous years, possibly influenced by new salary cap complexities like the second apron. Nevertheless, a flurry of extensions, trades, and signings reshaped the league landscape almost immediately, creating distinct early winners and losers.

Early Winners of the 2025 NBA Free Agency

Several franchises navigated the opening hours of free agency with moves that significantly bolstered their outlook, either through blockbuster deals, shrewd signings, or securing their core talent for the long haul.

Houston Rockets: Aggressive Contenders

The Houston Rockets wasted no time signaling their intentions to accelerate their timeline. Even before free agency officially opened, they pulled off a seismic trade on June 22nd, acquiring 15-time All-Star Kevin Durant from the Phoenix Suns. The cost was significant – Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, and six draft picks (including the No. 10 overall selection in 2025). While Durant will be 37 next season, his averages of 27 points, 6 rebounds, and 4 assists on elite shooting splits (53/43/84) last season demonstrate his continued impact.

Beyond the Durant trade, Houston declined Fred VanVleet’s $45 million option but quickly re-signed him to a more cap-friendly two-year, $50 million deal. They secured their young cornerstone Jabari Smith Jr. with a five-year, $122 million extension and added veteran presence by extending Steven Adams for three years and $39 million. On opening night, they notably snatched Dorian Finney-Smith from the Los Angeles Lakers with a four-year, $53 million contract. Finney-Smith is a valuable 3-and-D wing who shot over 40% from three last season and fits coach Ime Udoka’s defensive system. This aggressive spending spree, including smaller deals for Jeff Green, Aaron Holiday, and Jae’Sean Tate ($10 million combined), plus Udoka’s own extension, highlights a clear “go big or go home” strategy aimed at transforming into a contender.

Denver Nuggets (and Nikola Jokić): Targeted Upgrades

Even after pushing the eventual champions to seven games last season, the Denver Nuggets focused on refining their roster. Their most significant early move was trading Michael Porter Jr. to the Brooklyn Nets for Cameron Johnson. While Porter might offer more explosive scoring potential, Johnson is seen as a more consistent offensive threat with comparable per-game stats (Johnson: 18.8 PTS, 4.3 REB, 3.4 AST on 48/39/89 splits; Porter: 18.2 PTS, 7 REB, 2.1 AST on 50/40/77 splits).

Adding to their success, the Nuggets brought back fan favorite and key 2023 championship contributor Bruce Brown on a veteran minimum contract. Brown’s ability to bolster the second unit and provide cutting action complements Jokić’s passing brilliance. Any move that provides their superstar center with new, fitting weapons is seen as a win for the reigning Finals MVP.

Atlanta Hawks: Wing Accumulation

The Atlanta Hawks made impactful moves both before and at the start of free agency. A significant pre-free agency trade saw them acquire Kristaps Porziņģis and recoup a valuable unprotected first-round pick (via Milwaukee or New Orleans in 2026) while sending out the No. 22 pick. This trend of adding talent continued with the additions of Nickeil Alexander-Walker (via sign-and-trade from Minnesota) and Luke Kennard on opening night. These players provide much-needed depth and versatility on the wing, complementing young talents like Jalen Johnson, Dyson Daniels, and No. 1 overall pick Zaccharie Risacher, alongside Trae Young and Porziņģis. The Hawks are now positioned to be an intriguing team in a less dominant Eastern Conference.

Deserving Veterans Secure Payouts

Beyond the star power, the early free agency period saw several valuable role players earn significant new contracts. Luke Kornet, a hard-working big man who developed into a solid rim protector and complementary piece, earned a four-year, $41 million deal from the San Antonio Spurs, where he’ll play alongside Victor Wembanyama. Kevon Looney, a backbone of three Golden State Warriors championship teams despite modest scoring numbers, signed for $16 million over two seasons with the New Orleans Pelicans. The fact that dedicated, high-contribution players like Kornet, Looney, Dorian Finney-Smith, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker received solid financial recognition was seen as a positive outcome.

Early Losers of the 2025 NBA Free Agency

Not every team or player came out ahead in the initial free agency flurry. Some experienced significant losses, while others faced increased uncertainty.

Milwaukee Bucks (and Giannis Antetokounmpo): Key Loss

The Milwaukee Bucks’ offseason started with reports that Giannis Antetokounmpo was monitoring the team’s moves. Their early free agency performance did little to inspire confidence. After drafting a likely draft-and-stash European player (Boboljub Marković), they suffered a major blow by losing starting center Brook Lopez to the Los Angeles Clippers on a two-year, $18 million deal. While Lopez’s stats dipped slightly last season (13 PTS, 5 REB, 1.9 BLK), he was a vital part of their 2021 championship squad and a defensive anchor. Losing him without an apparent replacement is a tough pill to swallow. Re-signing Kevin Porter Jr., Gary Trent Jr., and Taurean Prince were not seen as moves that significantly elevate the team’s championship aspirations, potentially increasing concerns for their superstar.

Los Angeles Lakers: Future Focus at a Present Cost

The Los Angeles Lakers initially appeared among the losers, most notably by missing out on Dorian Finney-Smith, who chose the Rockets instead. Their biggest early signing was the relatively underwhelming Jake LaRavia (two years, $12 million), who was acquired via a salary dump trade earlier.

However, reports from outlets like The Athletic suggest the Lakers’ quiet approach wasn’t a failure but a deliberate strategy. The team is reportedly prioritizing long-term salary cap flexibility to position itself for a run at another superstar to pair with Luka Dončić in the summers of 2026 or 2027 (potential targets mentioned include Giannis Antetokounmpo or Nikola Jokic, depending on extensions). This strategy is enabled by LeBron James picking up his $52.6 million player option for next season, which provides immediate salary but frees up significant cap space the following years. LeBron’s agent, Rich Paul, confirmed James wants to compete for a championship while also acknowledging the Lakers are “building for the future” and evaluating what’s best for him at this stage. This strategic pivot, prioritizing future flexibility around Doncic even at the cost of immediate significant upgrades, signals that the “James era is truly winding down” for the franchise’s long-term plans.

The NBA’s Opening Night: A Lack of Fireworks

For the second straight year, the traditional excitement of NBA free agency opening night felt somewhat muted. Described as “largely a bust,” the lack of blockbuster deals and rapid-fire major signings on July 1st disappointed many fans. This could be a consequence of the league’s new collective bargaining agreement and its punitive second apron, limiting teams’ spending power. Additionally, allowing teams to negotiate with their own free agents before the official window opens may have diluted the drama and breaking news that typically defines the free agency start. Only teams like the Brooklyn Nets, seemingly focused on accumulating draft capital by absorbing less desirable contracts, appeared to be active players in this subdued environment.

Mixed Results and Shifting Landscapes

Some teams experienced a mix of positive and negative outcomes, reflecting ongoing transitions or complex roster constructions.

Memphis Grizzlies: A Lot of Stuff

The Memphis Grizzlies had a busy start to the offseason, earning a “[SHRUGGING THUMBS UP]” for doing “a lot of stuff.” Following a significant trade sending Desmond Bane to Orlando for multiple first-round picks, they focused on extensions. They renegotiated and extended Jaren Jackson Jr.’s contract to a five-year, $240 million max deal. While critics note his relatively low rebounding numbers (5.6 RPG), he is a former Defensive Player of the Year and a talented stretch big, forming a core alongside Ja Morant. They also extended Santi Aldama for three years and $52.5 million and signed Ty Jerome from Cleveland to a three-year, $27.7 million deal, adding depth at guard, especially given Morant’s injury history. While these extensions improved their foundation, the earlier trade of Bane made them “a good bit worse” in the short term. They remain an “interesting team” whose success hinges on Morant’s health and Jackson’s continued development.

Dallas Mavericks: A Weird Year Continues

Coming off a season where they traded Luka Dončić for the No. 1 pick (Cooper Flagg) and unexpectedly entered a rebuild, the Dallas Mavericks had a “weird year.” Free agency added to this. GM Nico Harrison’s first major signing was D’Angelo Russell on a two-year, $11.7 million deal. While the price is reasonable and addresses a need, the author questioned the fit of Russell, who is not known for playing “the right way,” alongside the highly-touted rookie Flagg. Their early free agency moves reflect a team in transition, seemingly making tactical signings while figuring out the direction of their unexpected rebuild.

Other Notable Moves and Rumors

Beyond the main winners and losers, the opening days of the offseason saw other significant player movement. James Harden agreed to a two-year, $81.5 million extension to stay with the LA Clippers. Julius Randle declined his player option but will sign a three-year, $100 million extension with the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Timberwolves also agreed to a massive five-year, $125 million extension with Sixth Man of the Year Naz Reid. In Phoenix, Devin Booker is reportedly working towards a record extension that could pay him $75 million annually. Austin Reaves of the Lakers rejected a four-year, $89.2 million extension offer, adding complexity to their future salary sheet. Veterans like John Collins (Jazz, $26.58M option), Daniel Gafford (Mavericks, $60M extension), and Khris Middleton (Wizards, $33.3M option) picked up options or signed extensions. Russell Westbrook reportedly declined his $3.4 million player option with the Nuggets to become a free agent. The Pelicans traded CJ McCollum to the Wizards, while the Magic acquired Desmond Bane from the Grizzlies in a deal sending multiple first-round picks to Memphis.

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the NBA salary cap for the 2025-26 season?

The NBA officially set the salary cap for the 2025-26 season at $154.647 million. This represents a 10% increase compared to the previous season’s cap figure and aligns with earlier projections for the new league year.

Which teams were considered early “winners” and “losers” in 2025 NBA free agency?

Based on initial analysis, early winners included the Houston Rockets for their aggressive spending and acquisition of Kevin Durant, the Denver Nuggets for targeted upgrades like Cam Johnson and Bruce Brown, and the Atlanta Hawks for adding wing depth. Early losers were seen as the Milwaukee Bucks, notably for losing Brook Lopez, and the Los Angeles Lakers, although their perceived losses are tied to a deliberate strategy focused on future flexibility.

What is the strategy behind the Lakers’ quiet start to 2025 free agency?

Despite appearing quiet and missing out on targets like Dorian Finney-Smith, the Los Angeles Lakers are reportedly prioritizing long-term salary cap flexibility. Their strategy, as reported, is to position themselves to potentially pursue a second superstar in the 2026 or 2027 free agency classes to pair with Luka Dončić, signaling a strategic shift as the LeBron James era nears its end.

Conclusion

The early days of 2025 NBA free agency unfolded with a mix of aggressive plays, strategic positioning, and surprising outcomes. While the initial excitement felt tempered compared to previous years, teams like the Rockets demonstrated a clear intent to push for contention immediately. Others, like the Lakers, opted for a longer view, prioritizing future cap flexibility over immediate splashy signings. Teams like the Grizzlies and Mavericks found themselves navigating mixed results amidst significant roster transitions. As the offseason progresses and more moves unfold, the full impact of these early decisions will become clearer, continuing to shape the competitive landscape of the league.

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