UFC Fight Night touches down in Baku, Azerbaijan, this Saturday, June 21st, headlined by a pivotal light heavyweight showdown. Former champion Jamahal Hill (#4 ranked) faces off against formidable contender Khalil Rountree Jr. (#7 ranked) in a clash critical for the division’s landscape. The main card airs live at 3 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN+, with the prelims kicking off at noon ET on ESPN/ESPN+.
Both Hill and Rountree are looking to rebound from recent challenges. Hill, a former divisional kingpin, enters the Octagon following consecutive knockout losses – first dropping his title to Alex Pereira, then falling to Jiri Prochazka. Rountree Jr.’s last outing was also a title bid against Pereira, where he was stopped in the fourth round after a competitive start.
To break down this intriguing main event and other key matchups on the card, we’ve gathered insights from former UFC fighters and top betting analysts.
UFC Baku Main Event Breakdown: Jamahal Hill vs. Khalil Rountree Jr.
The matchup between Hill and Rountree is a fascinating stylistic clash. Former UFC fighters turned analysts Din Thomas and Anthony Smith weighed in with their predictions:
Anthony Smith (Retired Fighter): Picks Hill via Second-Round KO.
Analysis: Smith highlights Hill’s unpredictable “X factors.” Having sparred with Hill, Smith finds him unique and more difficult to deal with than Rountree. While Rountree is technically perfect and predictable, Hill’s sharp eyes and unorthodox approach make him challenging, despite not being the more technically sound striker.
Din Thomas (Retired Fighter): Picks Hill via Fourth-Round KO.
Analysis: Thomas believes Hill needs this win to turn around his recent string of bad luck with injuries and losses. He suggests Rountree might have overperformed against Pereira and expects a slightly less convincing showing this time, creating an opening for Hill to capitalize.
Betting Insights: Following the Money in Baku
ESPN betting expert Ian Parker offers his analysis on the main event and other notable bouts, adding another layer to the predictions. It’s worth noting the significant shifts in betting odds reported by sportsbooks since opening lines, indicating where the public and “sharp” money are being placed.
Jamahal Hill vs. Khalil Rountree Jr. Odds & Analysis:
While Din Thomas and Anthony Smith favor Hill by knockout, Ian Parker leans towards Khalil Rountree Jr. winning the fight (-115 odds).
Parker’s Reasoning: Rountree’s performance against Alex Pereira, even in a loss, proved he belongs at the top, giving the champion trouble for two rounds. Parker views Rountree as a better striker, faster, and possessing more power than Hill. Given Hill’s back-to-back knockout defeats, Parker wouldn’t be surprised to see a third, unless Hill can effectively incorporate grappling threats to change the dynamic.
Market Movement Insights: Intriguingly, sports betting data reveals a significant flip in the betting line. Jamahal Hill, who opened as an underdog at +135, has seen heavy action and is now favored at around -105. Khalil Rountree Jr., initially a -160 favorite, has shifted to -115. This indicates that despite some analysts favoring Rountree, the market, particularly driven by a large percentage of bets (64%) and betting handle (80%) on Hill, has moved strongly in his direction.
Best Bets on the UFC Baku Card
Beyond the main event, several other fights on the card offer compelling matchups and betting opportunities. Here are some of Ian Parker’s top recommendations:
Lightweight: Rafael Fiziev (#11 Ranked) vs. Ignacio Bahamondes
Parker’s Pick: Bahamondes to win (-130).
Analysis: Bahamondes enters this fight on a three-fight winning streak, impressively finishing all three opponents in the first round, including a submission over Jalin Turner and KOs over Christos Giagos and Manuel Torres. Fiziev, conversely, has lost his last three bouts. Parker believes Bahamondes can match Fiziev’s striking prowess, using lateral movement and distance striking effectively. Bahamondes also possesses a submission game if needed.
Market Insight: Betting lines align with Parker here; Bahamondes also saw a flip from underdog (+110) to favorite (-135), attracting significant backing.
Heavyweight: Curtis Blaydes (#5 Ranked) vs. Rizvan Kuniev
Parker’s Pick: Blaydes to win (-250).
Analysis: Blaydes is a seasoned UFC veteran who recently challenged for the interim title. Kuniev is making his UFC debut after earning a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series with a first-round KO. Parker acknowledges Kuniev’s mat skills but emphasizes Blaydes’ seven years of competing against the division’s elite. He expects Blaydes to withstand any early rush from Kuniev and secure the win using his dominant wrestling.
Market Insight: While Blaydes is a clear favorite, sports betting data shows a counter-trend: Rizvan Kuniev has surprisingly attracted a very high percentage of the betting handle (92%) despite receiving fewer individual bets (74%) compared to Blaydes (26% bets, 8% handle). This could indicate large wagers placed on the debut underdog.
Catchweight (Originally Lightweight): Tofiq Musayev vs. Myktybek Orolbai
Parker’s Pick: Over 1.5 rounds.
Analysis: This fight has potential for “Fight of the Night.” Musayev, a debut fighter formerly with Bellator and Rizin, faces Orolbai (2-1 UFC), who recently showed significant durability. Parker expects this bout to go past the midpoint of the second round, noting Orolbai’s ability to overcome adversity and use wrestling to control opponents, potentially leading to a decision or late finish. (Note: This fight is now at a catchweight after weigh-ins).
Market Insight: Similar to the Blaydes fight, Tofiq Musayev, despite his debut status, also drew a high percentage of the betting handle (86%), suggesting strong financial backing.
Lightweight: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Nikolas Motta
Additional Pick Insight: Nazim Sadykhov is undefeated in the UFC since his professional debut, holding a 3-0-1 record. Nikolas Motta’s fights often end quickly, with five of his six UFC bouts finishing inside the distance. Expert picks lean towards Sadykhov by KO/TKO or DQ (+120), aligning with the likelihood of a finish in a Motta fight and Sadykhov’s power.
With critical divisional implications and intriguing betting angles, UFC Fight Night in Baku promises an action-packed card. Will Jamahal Hill reclaim momentum, or will Khalil Rountree Jr. assert his position? The expert picks and market trends add fascinating layers to Saturday’s event.