With the MLB trade deadline rapidly approaching on July 31, the landscape across baseball remains exceptionally fluid. A remarkable 25 out of 30 major league teams still view themselves as legitimate contenders for a postseason spot. This high number of hopefuls makes the upcoming deadline market particularly difficult to navigate, even for those inside the game’s decision-making circles.
To gain clarity on where the trade market might be headed, a poll was conducted among more than 40 major league front office executives. These included numerous presidents of baseball operations and general managers. They were asked to identify players they believe are most likely to be traded this month across key categories: starting pitcher, relief pitcher, and position player. The executives participated anonymously to ensure candid responses, and they were instructed not to name any players from their own organizations.
The insights provided by these decision-makers were eye-opening. While some potential trade candidates were anticipated, others proved genuinely surprising. A significant takeaway was the widespread uncertainty among executives regarding the market’s direction. As one National League president of baseball operations admitted, “I have no clue. Can’t make sense of (it) at all.” Many teams currently report looking to acquire talent rather than sell. An American League general manager noted that teams are “all waiting for teams to decide if they’re going to sell,” suggesting key decisions from clubs like the Diamondbacks, Orioles, Red Sox, Guardians, and Angels might not come until the deadline is imminent.
This anticipation sets the stage for potential twists and turns. The executives’ predictions offer valuable clues into which players might be on the move as July unfolds. Let’s look at the players mentioned most frequently by these front office insiders as top trade candidates.
Starting Pitchers Most Likely to Be Traded
Several starting pitchers were highlighted by executives, each presenting a unique trade profile driven by contract status, performance, or team situation.
Sandy Alcantara, RHP, Marlins
The player mentioned more than any other in the survey was Sandy Alcantara. This generated considerable buzz because, on the surface, his 4-8 record and 6.98 ERA this season don’t immediately scream “top trade asset.” However, executives looked beyond the surface numbers, focusing on his underlying value. Alcantara, 29, is in his first year back after Tommy John surgery and has shown recent improvement, allowing three runs or fewer in four of his last five starts as he appears to be nearing his previous form.
The key appeal is his contract control. Alcantara is signed through 2026 at $17.3 million annually with a team option for 2027 at $21 million. This provides a potential acquiring team with three seasons of control at a cost significantly below top-tier free agents like Max Fried or Corbin Burnes, who recently secured contracts exceeding $200 million. One GM noted that trading for an ace like Alcantara now is far less expensive than pursuing free agents such as Dylan Cease or Michael King in the offseason. The Marlins would need a substantial prospect package to move him now, but they also have the flexibility to wait until the offseason if offers aren’t compelling or if his performance dips. Most executives, however, believe a trade at this deadline is likely.
Mitch Keller, RHP, Pirates
Another name frequently discussed is Mitch Keller. The Pittsburgh Pirates are reportedly fielding calls about the 29-year-old right-hander. With the Pirates needing offensive upgrades, trading from their starting rotation is seen as a logical path to acquire young, impactful hitters. Keller has posted a solid 3.90 ERA and 1.22 WHIP through 17 starts this year. He is under contract through the 2028 season with an average annual salary around $18 million, making him a valuable asset with multiple years of control. Teams like the Cubs and Mets have been mentioned as potential landing spots.
Merrill Kelly, RHP, Diamondbacks
Merrill Kelly, 36, is an impending free agent and a hometown favorite who reportedly prefers to finish his career in Arizona. Yet, front office thinking suggests a trade is highly plausible. One GM pointed out that the Diamondbacks could trade Kelly as a rental player at the deadline to bolster their farm system with a solid prospect or two, then potentially re-sign him in the offseason. This strategy allows them to gain future assets without necessarily saying goodbye to a valued veteran. Kelly has pitched well this season, holding a 7-4 record with a 3.49 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over 17 starts, striking out 100 batters in 98 innings. Notably, recent game data shows Kelly holds a 7-4 record with a 3.55 ERA over 18 games and 104 innings as of mid-July 2025, with strong strikeout-to-walk numbers, reinforcing his value despite the Arizona Diamondbacks’ broader injury struggles, particularly among pitchers.
Other Notable Starting Pitcher Candidates
Veterans like Andrew Heaney (Pirates) and Zach Eflin (Orioles) also appeared on executive lists. Heaney, a 34-year-old lefty with a 4.16 ERA, is seen as a quality back-end rotation piece for injured contenders like the Mets. Eflin, 31, making $18 million this year, is an impending free agent, but his trade status is complicated by two stints on the injured list for back discomfort. His ability to recover and pitch effectively in July will likely dictate his availability.
Zac Gallen (Diamondbacks), despite a down year (6-9, 5.45 ERA), was mentioned due to his track record (three top-10 Cy Young finishes) and the potential for a change of scenery to boost his value ahead of free agency next year. His metrics (lower fastball velocity, increased walks/homers, decreased strikeouts) have been concerning, but his historical performance makes him intriguing.
Younger pitcher Edward Cabrera (Marlins), controllable through 2028, was cited for his high trade value. The 27-year-old has shown improved command recently (1.46 ERA in his last seven starts), lowering his walk rate significantly from previous seasons. While the Marlins aren’t actively shopping him, executives believe they would consider moving him for an exceptional return package, especially given their extensive pitching injuries noted in recent game reports.
Relief Pitchers Predicted to Move
Bullpen help is always in high demand at the deadline, and executives identified several high-impact relievers as prime trade candidates.
Aroldis Chapman, LHP, Red Sox
Overwhelmingly, Aroldis Chapman was named the relief pitcher most likely to be traded. The 37-year-old veteran is enjoying a dominant season, posting a sparkling 1.32 ERA with 14 saves and an impressive 50 strikeouts in just 34 innings across 37 appearances. His performance makes him a potential difference-maker for any contending bullpen. Chapman has recent experience being traded at the deadline, having been moved from the Royals to the Rangers in a late-June 2022 deal that helped propel Texas to a World Series title.
David Bednar & Dennis Santana, RHP, Pirates
According to one GM, David Bednar and Dennis Santana of the Pirates are considered “all but gone” and could potentially be traded together. Apart from foundational pieces like Paul Skenes and Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh is reportedly making almost everyone available. Bednar, 30, has rebounded from a challenging start to post a 2.73 ERA with 12 saves in 33 appearances. Santana, 29, holds a strong 1.50 ERA and 0.78 WHIP over 36 games with five saves. Both relievers are controllable through the 2026 season via arbitration, adding to their appeal for teams looking beyond just a rental.
Félix Bautista, RHP, Orioles
Despite the Orioles publicly stating their intention to be buyers, some executives believe trading Félix Bautista could be their shrewdest move. The thinking is that dealing the hard-throwing righty for multiple young starting pitching prospects could accelerate a reboot towards contention in 2026 and beyond, especially given recent reports highlighting extensive pitching injuries across the league, including the Orioles’ own IL. Bautista, 29, is performing well in his first season back from Tommy John surgery, with a 2.73 ERA and 16 saves in 30 appearances, striking out 43 batters in 29 2/3 innings. His control through the 2027 season significantly increases his trade value.
Mason Miller, RHP, Athletics
Oakland’s closer, Mason Miller, has generated significant trade interest over the past couple of years, but the A’s have held firm. This season might be different, however, particularly if the team doesn’t plan to transition the flame-throwing righty to a starting role. One NL GM called it “foolish” for the A’s to keep him if they aren’t using him as a starter, given the massive return he could command. Miller, 26, possesses elite velocity, averaging 100.9 mph on his fastball, and batters struggle mightily against his wipeout slider (.122 average). He’s converted 17 saves while holding a 4.55 ERA but boasts 52 strikeouts in 31 2/3 innings. Multiple teams are reportedly interested in trading for Miller specifically to develop him as a starter, believing he has ace potential. Controllable through 2029, a trade for Miller would require an enormous prospect package.
Other Reliever Candidates
Other relievers frequently mentioned included the Cardinals’ Ryan Helsley, the Guardians’ Emmanuel Clase, and the Twins’ duo of Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax. Helsley, 30, an impending free agent with 16 saves and a 3.41 ERA, could be moved depending on St. Louis’s performance in July. Clase, 27, is a surprise inclusion given he’s one of baseball’s top closers and controlled through 2028. Some executives speculated the Guardians, needing offense (ranking 26th in runs per game according to recent team data), might consider a buyer-to-buyer trade, swapping their lockdown reliever for an impact bat. Duran, 27, is having a fantastic season (1.69 ERA, 12 saves) and is controlled through 2027, while Jax, 30, also controlled through 2027, has a 4.08 ERA but strong strikeout numbers. Executives mentioning the Twins relievers might simply be expressing wishful thinking by teams hoping to acquire high-leverage arms.
Position Players Considered Top Trade Targets
Teams looking for offensive upgrades or defensive help also have several prominent names potentially available, according to the executives polled.
Josh Naylor, 1B, Diamondbacks
Josh Naylor was the position player mentioned most often by the surveyed executives. While the Diamondbacks publicly state they are buyers focused on adding pitching, many opposing teams believe they are more likely to sell impending free-agent bats to acquire the pitching they need. Naylor, 28, is having a strong offensive season, slashing .304/.359/.471 with 10 home runs and 53 RBIs. This follows a powerful 2023 campaign where he hit 31 homers with 108 RBIs for Cleveland. Several teams in need of a power bat, including the Mariners, Rangers, Giants, Reds, and Red Sox, are seen as potential suitors. His performance stands out, especially considering the extensive injury list the Diamondbacks have faced this season, which includes Naylor himself recently being listed as day-to-day with an undisclosed issue according to recent game reports.
Ryan O’Hearn, DH, Orioles
If the Orioles ultimately decide to sell, Ryan O’Hearn could be one of their most sought-after players. The soon-to-be free agent is also having a productive year at the plate, with a .295/.383/.473 slash line, 11 home runs, and 30 RBIs in 244 at-bats, numbers comparable to Naylor’s. He profiles similarly regarding team needs and potential landing spots. The 31-year-old adds value through his versatility, capable of playing first base and left field in addition to designated hitter, and his relatively low $8 million salary further enhances his trade appeal.
Luis Robert Jr., CF, White Sox
Perhaps the most surprising name on the position player list is Luis Robert Jr. His inclusion raises eyebrows given his current struggles (.185 average, 64 OPS+) and recent hamstring injury. Many executives believe the White Sox would be better off waiting until the offseason, hoping Robert plays well in August and September to regain trade value. However, some insiders think he might still be traded due to the scarcity of power-hitting outfielders at the deadline and the potential boost a change of scenery could provide. Robert, 26, offers significant upside, just one year removed from hitting 38 home runs. He is controlled through 2027 via team options ($15M this year, $20M for 2026-27), which provides value despite his present performance. He remains a strong defender and has shown speed with 22 stolen bases this season, even if his hitting has lagged.
Eugenio Suárez, 3B, Diamondbacks
Eugenio Suárez is having a tremendous first half, belting 26 home runs with 69 RBIs. His strong offensive production keeps his value high despite being an impending free agent. Like Naylor, executives see Suárez, 33, as a potential piece in a buyer-to-buyer deal where the Diamondbacks could swap offense for pitching. Trading Suárez could also pave the way for top prospect Jordan Lawlar to take over at third base. A reunion with the Mariners, where he previously played, or a trade to the Yankees, who could shift Jazz Chisholm Jr. to second base, were mentioned as logical fits, especially considering the Yankees’ injury situation as detailed in recent game reports.
Other Position Player Candidates
The list also includes several other intriguing outfield and infield options. Cedric Mullins (Orioles), an impending free agent, offers speed and elite defense despite a down offensive year (.214 avg, 12 HR, 8 SB). A hypothetical trade packaging Mullins and Bautista to the Phillies was floated as a strong fit. Jarren Duran (Red Sox), controlled through 2028, surprised some executives with his frequent mention. His production (league-leading nine triples, 20 doubles) and speed make him valuable, potentially signaling Boston’s comfort moving him given the emergence of other outfielders. Duran has been linked to the Padres and Phillies. Bryan Reynolds (Pirates), controlled through 2031 at a market-value salary, is a consistent performer (24-27 HR annually, ~3.0 bWAR) in the corner outfield, sought by teams needing bats, while Pittsburgh seeks younger prospects.
Taylor Ward (Angels), controlled through 2026, offers power (20 HR, 57 RBIs) despite a low average (.217). If the Angels shift to selling, or engage in buyer-to-buyer deals, Ward, 31, makes sense as a trade piece, perhaps to the Royals. Adolis García (Rangers), controlled through 2025 via arbitration, could be moved if Texas falters or if his offensive slump (.231 avg, 10 HR) continues, despite his strong defense and advanced hitting metrics (94th percentile average exit velocity). Wilyer Abreu (Red Sox), controlled through 2029, was mentioned as an alternative to Duran, favored by some teams for his elite defense and strong offensive year (.256 avg, 16 HR). Steven Kwan (Guardians), a surprising name controlled through 2027, is a three-time Gold Glover having another strong hitting season (.296/.359/.418). The Guardians, needing power, could potentially swap him in a buyer-to-buyer deal for a different offensive profile. Luis Rengifo (Angels), an impending free agent, is sought after for his positional flexibility (2B, SS, 3B), though his offensive numbers are down this year. He’s been linked to the Yankees.
Finally, two veteran surprise mentions were the Red Sox’s Alex Bregman and the Phillies’ Nick Castellanos. Bregman, 31, currently on the IL with a quad strain but performing well when healthy (.299/.385/.553, 11 HR), could be traded if Boston cannot agree to an extension, despite his willingness to sign long-term. He brings valuable postseason experience. Castellanos, 33, continues to be a trade rumor fixture. Hitting .282 with 10 homers, his value is hampered by below-average defense and a $20 million annual salary through 2026, likely requiring the Phillies to pay down his contract to facilitate a move for a better right-field option.
The next 30 days leading up to the July 31 deadline promise significant activity as teams clarify their positions and pursue necessary upgrades or future assets. While the market’s direction remains uncertain, these insights from major league front office executives provide a compelling list of players most likely to be involved in the deals to come.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is the MLB trade market so unpredictable this year?
According to surveyed major league executives, the uncertainty stems from a high number of teams – 25 out of 30 – still feeling they are within reach of the postseason. This means many teams haven’t committed to being clear buyers or sellers. Most clubs are currently looking to buy, creating a waiting game until closer to the July 31 deadline for teams on the fence (like Arizona, Baltimore, Boston, Cleveland, and Los Angeles Angels) to decide their strategy. This lack of clear selling teams makes it tough to predict player availability and market prices.
Which types of players are teams most likely to trade, based on executive predictions?
Executives mentioned a mix of players with different profiles as trade candidates. Impending free agents like Merrill Kelly, Aroldis Chapman, Ryan Helsley, Josh Naylor, Ryan O’Hearn, Eugenio Suárez, Cedric Mullins, and Luis Rengifo are prime rental candidates. However, players with multiple years of contract control, such as Sandy Alcantara (through 2027 option), Mitch Keller (through 2028), Félix Bautista (through 2027), Mason Miller (through 2029), David Bednar/Dennis Santana (through 2026 arbitration), Edward Cabrera (through 2028 arbitration), Jarren Duran (through 2028), Bryan Reynolds (through 2031), Taylor Ward (through 2026), Wilyer Abreu (through 2029), and Steven Kwan (through 2027 arbitration), are also highly sought after for their long-term value, often requiring larger prospect returns. Even struggling stars like Luis Robert Jr. or unexpected names like Emmanuel Clase were mentioned due to their control or unique potential.
How does a player’s contract status or injury history affect their trade likelihood or value?
Contract status is a major factor. Players nearing free agency often become “rentals” traded for lesser prospects, while players with multiple years of control (“controllable assets”) command significantly higher returns. For example, Mason Miller’s 2029 control makes his potential return “massive,” while Merrill Kelly’s impending free agency allows the D-backs to consider trading him as a rental and potentially re-signing him later. Injury history, like Zach Eflin’s recurring back issues or Luis Robert Jr.’s hamstring injury, can raise red flags and potentially decrease trade value or likelihood, depending on severity and recovery timelines leading up to the deadline. Teams must balance potential risk against the player’s talent and contract term.
