NATO Unveils Ambitious 5% Defense Spending Goal at The Hague Summit
NATO members have agreed to a significant increase in defense spending, committing to a target of 5% of their gross domestic product (GDP) by 2035. The landmark agreement, reached during a recent summit in The Hague, represents a major shift for the alliance and fulfills a long-standing demand, particularly from former U.S. President Donald Trump.
For decades, NATO allies had aimed for a 2% GDP defense spending target, which many European nations consistently failed to meet, often spending closer to 1.5%. Trump had repeatedly criticized this disparity, arguing the U.S. bore an unfair burden for European security and ramping up pressure during his 2024 election campaign, even floating the idea of a 5% goal.
Alliance leaders framed the decision as a necessary step to address “profound security threats and challenges,” explicitly citing the “long-term threat posed by Russia to Euro-Atlantic security” and terrorism. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte emphasized that the agreement would build a “stronger, fairer and more lethal alliance,” sending a “powerful message” of determination. Rutte notably credited Trump’s pressure for driving European nations to “pay in a BIG way” for their defense.
Deconstructing the 5% Target
The newly agreed-upon 5% target is not solely for traditional military hardware. The agreement specifies a two-tiered structure:
3.5% of GDP: Dedicated to core defense spending, encompassing troops, weapons, and direct military capabilities.
Up to 1.5% of GDP: Allocated for broader security-related investments. This includes areas like cybersecurity, robust infrastructure suitable for rapid troop deployment (such as roads, bridges, ports, and airfields), and initiatives aimed at preparing societies for potential conflict. This flexible component offers allies some leeway in how they reach the overall target.
While the commitment sets an ambitious benchmark, the 2035 deadline provides a generous timeline for many countries. However, some NATO members located closer to Ukraine expressed a preference for quicker progress given the immediate security landscape.
Navigating Dissent and Doubts
Despite the consensus, the 5% target was not universally embraced without reservation. Spain, for instance, had publicly deemed the target “unreasonable” and “counterproductive” before the summit. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez indicated Spain was already making an “enormous effort” to reach the previous 2% goal and requested a “more flexible formula” or exclusion from the target, stating they could not commit to 5%. Trump publicly criticized Spain’s position as “very unfair,” reportedly even threatening trade sanctions. Belgium and Slovakia also initially voiced concerns about the scale of the increase, though their leaders ultimately did not block the agreement.
The challenge for many nations now lies in the complex fiscal maneuverings required. Finance ministers face the task of recategorizing existing or planned expenditures to fit within the defense and security investment categories, potentially leading to debates about what truly counts towards the military budget. Furthermore, achieving such a significant increase requires European companies to scale up arms production, and governments must navigate potential voter resistance to vastly increased defense spending.
Commitment to Article 5 and Ukraine’s Future
Amidst the focus on spending, alliance leaders unequivocally reaffirmed their “ironclad commitment” to Article 5, the principle of collective defense where an attack on one is considered an attack on all. This reassurance comes despite past ambiguous comments from Trump regarding the mutual defense guarantee. The summit appears to have helped avert a sharp rift, keeping Trump formally bound to the alliance structure, at least for now.
Support for Ukraine also remained on the agenda. Member states reiterated their commitment to providing assistance, with direct contributions to Kyiv’s defense and defense industry factoring into allies’ spending assessments. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy attended meetings, appealing for European investment in Ukraine’s defense industry. However, the summit’s final communique notably did not repeat previous commitments to Ukraine’s “irreversible path” to NATO membership, aligning with the stated position of the U.S. White House, which reportedly continues to hope for a ceasefire. Trump’s interaction with Zelenskyy included a pledge to look into supplying Patriot anti-missile interceptors but offered non-committal responses regarding restarting broader U.S. military aid. Ukraine’s membership bid appears to have been “put in deep freeze” by Trump.
The Hague summit marks a pivotal moment for NATO, signaling a substantial commitment to increased military and security investment driven by evolving geopolitical realities and significant political pressure. While the ambitious 5% target represents a clear win for advocates of higher European contributions, the path to achieving it by 2035 presents considerable economic, political, and logistical challenges that the alliance must still navigate.
