Pixar Animation Studios, long synonymous with critical acclaim and box office dominance, faced an unprecedented challenge with its latest original film, “Elio.” The cosmic adventure recorded the lowest opening weekend in the studio’s history, bringing in a modest $21 million in the U.S. and Canada and $35 million globally. This performance underscores the evolving landscape for animated features and raises questions about what happened.
Debuting in third place, “Elio” found itself behind Universal Pictures’ successful live-action remake of “How to Train Your Dragon” and Sony Pictures’ horror revival “28 Years Later,” highlighting the competitive nature of the summer box office season.
The Stark Numbers: A Record Low for Pixar
“Elio’s” $21 million domestic debut significantly trailed Pixar’s previous lowest opening weekend, which belonged to 2023’s “Elemental” at $29.6 million. It even came in below the unadjusted $29.1 million debut of the original “Toy Story” back in 1995 (though “Toy Story” launched ahead of a holiday weekend).
This performance stands in stark contrast to the massive success seen by animated films based on established intellectual property (IP) or sequels. Recent hits like Pixar’s “Inside Out 2,” Disney’s “Moana 2,” and Universal’s “Super Mario Bros. Movie” have each soared past the billion-dollar mark worldwide. Even Universal’s “Despicable Me 4” neared that milestone with $969 million. Meanwhile, recent original animated films like Universal’s “Migration” ($300 million worldwide) and DreamWorks’ acclaimed “The Wild Robot” ($333 million) have achieved more moderate results, illustrating the uphill battle new stories face.
What Drove the Disappointing Debut?
Analysts and industry observers point to several interconnected factors contributing to “Elio’s” soft opening, revealing broader trends impacting original animation.
The Ascendancy of Sequels and Familiar IP:
Perhaps the most significant challenge is the current market’s strong preference for established franchises and nostalgic brands. As analyst Jeff Bock noted, “sequels have been all the rage,” with audiences gravitating towards beloved characters and stories they already know. The record-breaking success of “Inside Out 2” serves as clear evidence that audiences are particularly eager for Pixar sequels. This trend suggests Pixar will increasingly lean into sequels in the near future, with “Toy Story 5” and “Incredibles 3” already confirmed, and even a potential “Coco 2” on the horizon, alongside original projects like “Hoppers” and “Gatto.”
Getting Lost in the Shuffle:
Timing and competition also played a role. Opening against a popular live-action remake and another high-profile film, “Elio” struggled to cut through the noise. Analyst Eric Handler suggested the film simply “got squeezed out,” highlighting that families have limited summer weekends and must choose carefully among many entertainment options. The lingering presence of other films like Disney’s “Lilo & Stitch” remake further intensified the competitive landscape.
Marketing Challenges and Unfamiliarity:
For an original film with new characters, audience familiarity is critical, and analysts noted that many moviegoers might have been unaware of “Elio.” Reports suggest that initial marketing efforts might have been limited or focused on vague sci-fi themes rather than highlighting the compelling emotional core that critics later praised. Selling a fresh story is inherently tougher in a crowded entertainment market compared to leveraging established IP.
Lingering Pandemic Habits and Genre Struggles:
The COVID-19 pandemic also shifted audience behavior. With original Pixar films like “Soul,” “Luca,” and “Turning Red” initially sent directly to Disney+, families became accustomed to watching animated movies at home. While theaters have rebounded, some analysts believe this conditioning still influences family decision-making regarding theatrical attendance for non-franchise films. Additionally, “Elio” follows a string of recent original Disney/Pixar sci-fi/space-themed films like “Strange World” and “Lightyear” that also underperformed, suggesting the genre itself might be a recent area of difficulty for the studio’s original output.
A Glimmer of Hope? Positive Reception and the ‘Elemental’ Effect
Despite the challenging box office numbers, “Elio” has positive indicators. The film received generally strong reviews, holding an 84% “fresh” score on Rotten Tomatoes. More crucially, audience reception has been glowing, with favorable PostTrak exit polls and an overall ‘A’ CinemaScore, including an impressive ‘A+’ from children.
This strong word-of-mouth potential fuels hope that “Elio” could follow a trajectory similar to “Elemental.” That film also faced a disappointing opening weekend but went on to build momentum throughout the summer via positive buzz, ultimately grossing a respectable $496 million worldwide. Studio representatives and some analysts, like Russell Vannorsdel, believe that “Elio” has the potential to show “legs” and find its audience over time through brand loyalty and word-of-mouth, much like its predecessor.
The Cost of Taking Risks: Budget and Future Strategy
With a reported production budget between $150 million and $200 million (before substantial global marketing costs), “Elio’s” low opening poses a significant financial hurdle, especially considering studios split box office revenue with theaters. Pixar and Walt Disney Animation Studios films typically have higher budgets partly because production work is primarily done in the U.S. rather than outsourced overseas.
Nevertheless, Disney has reiterated its commitment to developing original animated IP alongside lucrative sequels. Industry observers like Paul Dergarabedian emphasize the importance of studios taking creative swings with fresh stories for the long-term health and innovation of the animation business, even if not every gamble pays off theatrically.
While the box office opening is undeniable, it’s likely not the end of the story for “Elio.” A theatrical release provides significant marketing lift for its eventual debut on the Disney+ streaming platform, where it is expected to be a “big winner.” Furthermore, the film can be integrated into the wider Disney “ecosystem” through merchandise and theme park experiences, potentially boosting its visibility and longevity well beyond its theatrical run.
“Elio’s” record-low opening weekend serves as a stark reminder of the current market dynamics heavily favoring established franchises. However, its positive critical and audience reception offer a path for potential success over time, particularly on streaming, underscoring Pixar’s willingness to balance essential original storytelling with the undeniable draw of its iconic sequels.
