The NBA Finals have delivered a dramatic, back-and-forth battle, culminating in the sport’s most thrilling spectacle: Game 7. On Sunday, June 21, 2025, either the Indiana Pacers or the Oklahoma City Thunder will hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy. This winner-take-all showdown tips off at 8 p.m. ET from the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City.
After the Pacers delivered a stunning 108-91 rout in Game 6, dominating the Thunder to force the deciding contest, the series shifts back to OKC. The Thunder have been a juggernaut at home this postseason, boasting an impressive record and significant point differentials. But can they hold off a resilient Pacers squad fighting for history?
This Game 7 presents unique betting opportunities and challenges. Let’s break down the key insights, expert picks, and factors influencing the odds.
Expert Picks for NBA Finals Game 7
Analyzing player performance, potential role changes due to injuries, and high-pressure situations is crucial when betting on a Game 7. Here are some recommended player prop bets for the deciding game:
Pascal Siakam Over 11.5 Assists + Rebounds (+105): Pascal Siakam has been a vital contributor across multiple categories for the Pacers. In a championship-deciding game, especially with Tyrese Haliburton potentially limited by a calf strain, expect Siakam to provide maximum effort and impact the game beyond scoring. He’s cleared this combined line in half the Finals games, and his underlying stats like potential assists (averaging 6.2) and rebound chances (12.2 per game) in the series position him well to exceed this mark in a high-usage Game 7.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 44.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-120): This marks the first NBA Finals Game 7 since 2019 and only the fifth this century. The stakes are immense for regular-season MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, particularly after the Thunder entered the series as heavy favorites. To secure the title and solidify his Finals MVP claim, SGA needs a masterful performance. While he’s gone over this PRA line in just two Finals games, he’s demonstrated the ability to stuff the stat sheet when playing heavy minutes, clearing 44.5 PRA in eight of his last 11 games when logging 41+ minutes – a threshold he’s highly likely to hit in Game 7.
Andrew Nembhard Over 14.5 Points + Assists (-120): Tyrese Haliburton played well in Game 6 despite a calf issue, but his lingering injury could still impact his effectiveness. Andrew Nembhard stepped up significantly in Game 6, posting a series-high 17 points and 4 assists (21 P+A). The Pacers will likely need him to carry a similar load if Haliburton isn’t 100%. Nembhard averaged 12.5 points and 5.0 assists (17.5 P+A) in the first two games in Oklahoma City, suggesting he can produce effectively in the road environment.
Jalen Williams Over 22.5 Points (-125): Jalen Williams was finding his offensive rhythm before Game 6, averaging 31.0 points over the prior three contests. Despite the team’s third-quarter struggles in Game 6, he still had a strong scoring start with 16 first-half points. Playing at home in a Game 7 provides an ideal opportunity for Williams to bounce back and deliver another high-scoring effort.
Pascal Siakam Over 20.5 Points (-110): As Indiana’s only healthy player with All-Star caliber production this series, Siakam is tasked with providing consistent scoring, especially on the road in a hostile Game 7 environment. He’s averaged 21.3 points over the last four games, scoring at least 20 in three of the previous four before sitting out much of the fourth quarter in the Game 6 blowout. Expect him to be aggressive and continue scoring at a high level in the finale.
Understanding the Shifting Game 7 Line
The betting market for Game 7 saw significant action following Indiana’s Game 6 win. The line, which initially favored the Thunder by 8.5 points, began to shrink notably on Friday morning. This movement was reportedly driven by “sharp money” – bets from experienced, high-volume bettors – favoring the underdog Pacers in Las Vegas.
Most sportsbooks quickly adjusted the line to -7.5, though ESPN BET was an outlier, dropping its number further to -6.5. As sports betting experts noted, factors like Haliburton’s health status and the competitive nature of the series influenced these adjustments. Despite the shift, the Thunder’s home court advantage remains significant. Oklahoma City has been nearly unbeatable at Paycom Center this postseason and historically shows strong performance metrics as home favorites, often exceeding expectations against the spread in that scenario.
Even with the line shrinking, the Thunder’s -7.5 spread represents the largest point spread for an NBA Finals Game 7 since 1991 and ranks as the fourth largest for any Game 7 during that period, according to ESPN research. This highlights the market’s respect for Oklahoma City’s home dominance, even as sharp money views the Pacers as a live underdog. Monitoring line movement throughout the week is a key betting strategy, as shifts can reveal market sentiment and potentially offer better value.
Game Details & Odds
Matchup: Indiana Pacers at Oklahoma City Thunder
Date: Sunday, June 21, 2025
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Location: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
TV: ABC
Current Line: Pacers +6.5 (EVEN) | Thunder -6.5 (-120)
Moneyline: Pacers +215 | Thunder -265
Total: 214.5 (-105 Over, -105 Under)
Injury Report: Pacers – None reported | Thunder – None reported
(Odds are subject to change. Check ESPN BET for the most up-to-date lines.)
Historical Notes Entering Game 7
This historic Game 7 carries several fascinating notes:
Should the Thunder win, they would join the 2008 Celtics and 2013 Heat as teams to win at least two Game 7s en route to a championship in a single postseason.
If the Pacers triumph, they would become the first No. 4 seed to win the title since seeding began in 1984 and the lowest-seeded champion since the No. 6 seed Houston Rockets in 1995.
Oklahoma City has scored at least 110 points in all 12 of their home playoff games this season, setting an NBA playoffs record.
The Pacers won 18 fewer regular-season games than the Thunder. A win Sunday would break the record for the largest win differential upset in Finals history, currently held by the 2016 Cavaliers.
The Thunder’s +247 point differential at home in the postseason is on pace for an NBA record, with no team in history finishing a postseason with a +200 home differential.
The Pacers have showcased remarkable balance, featuring four different leading scorers in this series, which ties the Finals record.
Betting on Game 7 requires careful consideration of player matchups, injury impacts, team trends, and the high-pressure nature of the moment. Whether you’re backing the dominant home favorite Thunder or the resilient underdog Pacers, this finale promises to be unforgettable.
