The 2025 NBA Finals comes down to one winner-take-all game. After battling through six intense contests, the Indiana Pacers and the Oklahoma City Thunder meet for a decisive Game 7. The series is knotted at 3-3, setting the stage for a dramatic conclusion to the season on Sunday, June 22, 2025, tipping off at 8 p.m. ET from Paycom Center in Oklahoma City.
The Pacers forced this final showdown with a crucial Game 6 victory on their home court. That win came despite ongoing concerns surrounding the calf injury of star guard Tyrese Haliburton, a factor that has significantly impacted Indiana’s offense and shifted betting lines throughout the series. Now, the action shifts back to Oklahoma City, where the Thunder will look to leverage home-court advantage.
NBA Finals Game 7 Betting Odds
As the series shifts back to OKC, the Thunder open as significant favorites. Here are the current betting lines ahead of Game 7:
Spread: Thunder -7.5 (-110) | Pacers +7.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Thunder -290 | Pacers +260
Total Points: Over/Under 215.5 (-110/-110)
(Note: Odds are subject to change leading up to tip-off).
The spread for Game 7 has seen slight movement since opening as high as Thunder -9, indicating some adjustment by bookmakers and public money. The total of 215.5 is the lowest over/under of the series, potentially reflecting the defensive intensity expected in a Game 7 and the uncertainty around player health.
Expert Analysis and Predictions
Analyzing a Game 7 requires looking beyond standard metrics, considering pressure, player health, and expert insights. Data modeling provides a probabilistic outlook, while handicapper analysis offers detailed reasoning on perceived value.
According to a predictive analytics model that simulated the game 10,000 times, the Oklahoma City Thunder are given a 72% probability of winning outright. The Indiana Pacers have a 28% chance of pulling off the upset.
Despite the strong win probability for the Thunder, the model’s prediction against the spread favors the visiting Pacers. The model suggests the Pacers (+7.5) have a 52% chance of covering the spread, slightly higher than the probability for the total going over. The projected final score from the model averages out to a 111-104 victory for the Thunder, a margin of 7 points which falls within the Pacers’ +7.5 cover.
Expert handicappers are also zeroing in on key factors, particularly player performance and the impact of injuries. The status and effectiveness of Tyrese Haliburton remain a major storyline. Even if he plays, his calf injury is expected to limit his explosive offensive capabilities and ability to handle the Thunder’s elite perimeter defense, which has historically posed challenges for the Pacers’ attack.
On the Thunder side, league MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is expected to carry a heavy load. Analysis suggests SGA’s recent assist numbers in the box score might be deceptively low, partly due to teammates missing potential assists and reduced minutes in blowout scenarios earlier in the series. With high ball-handling duties and 40+ minutes expected in Game 7, some analysts see value in his assist numbers potentially rising, especially if Thunder role players shoot better at home as they did in Game 5.
Key Player Prop Bets to Watch
Based on expert analysis, certain player props stand out for Game 7:
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 6.5 Assists (+132): Despite recent lower assist totals, the rationale suggests SGA is generating more potential assists than reflected and teammates’ conversion rates at home could boost his numbers. This line is seen as offering significant value compared to its perceived true odds.
Tyrese Haliburton 8+ Assists (+144): While Haliburton’s calf injury and reduced minutes in Game 6 contributed to a lower line, some believe the +144 odds for 8 or more assists are highly attractive. His typical regular-season assist lines were much higher, and if he can push through the injury for decent minutes, his playmaking ability could exceed this depressed number.
(Note: Prop bet odds can vary by sportsbook).*
Recommended Bets for Game 7
Synthesizing the data model and expert analysis, here are the highlighted betting recommendations for the decisive Game 7:
- Indiana Pacers +7.5 (-110): The data model’s strongest against-the-spread play is backing the Pacers to cover. While the Thunder are heavy favorites to win the game, history shows that Game 7s can be tighter affairs, and the 7.5-point cushion offers solid value based on the probabilistic outlook.
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 6.5 Assists (+132): This prop bet is flagged by handicappers as having excellent value, driven by the belief that SGA’s assist numbers are due for positive regression based on potential assists and the high-leverage Game 7 environment.
Game 7 promises a thrilling conclusion to the NBA season. Whether you’re rooting for a Thunder championship or a historic Pacers upset, the betting market offers intriguing angles on the potential outcomes.
