Despite the global scientific consensus that precise earthquake prediction—pinpointing the exact date, time, and location—remains impossible with current technology, a persistent and widespread panic has gripped parts of japan and surrounding regions. This anxiety isn’t driven by new scientific data, but by a decades-old Japanese manga. “The Future I Saw” (Watashi ga Mita Mirai), a work by retired artist Ryo Tatsuki, particularly its 2021 re-release, features a prediction of a catastrophic “megaquake” and subsequent massive tsunami slated for July 5, 2025. This specific date has become a focal point for fear, leading to tangible real-world consequences.
A Manga’s Ominous Vision Goes Viral
Ryo Tatsuki’s manga “The Future I Saw,” first published in 1999, gained notoriety years ago due to a perceived correlation between one of its panels depicting a “great disaster” and the devastating Great East Japan Earthquake of March 2011. That natural catastrophe caused a powerful tsunami, led to the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster, and resulted in over 18,000 fatalities. This perceived accuracy earned Tatsuki the moniker “Japan’s Baba Vanga.”
The 2021 reprint revived interest, especially concerning another distinct vision described within the manga: a dream predicting a colossal disaster on July 5. Specifically, the prophecy details a massive crack forming on the seabed between Japan and the Philippines, triggering “huge waves” and tsunamis. The predicted tsunami is terrifyingly described as being “three times” higher than the one that struck in the 2011 disaster, threatening devastation across Pacific Rim countries, with particular focus on southwest Japan.
The Spread of Speculation
This unsettling prediction gained immense traction, amplified significantly through social media platforms like TikTok. Clips, screenshots, and discussions about the July 5, 2025, prophecy went viral, racking up millions of views. This online fervor fueled scientifically unfounded fears among a wide audience, particularly in East Asian regions including Hong Kong, Taiwan, China, and South Korea.
The virality was partly driven by the perceived past accuracy regarding 2011, lending the current prediction an air of credibility it scientifically lacks. Adding to the anxiety, recent real-world seismic activity in Japan, including clusters of minor tremors detected around the predicted date in early July 2025, was misinterpreted or presented online as confirmation of the prophecy, despite scientists stating there is no connection.
Science Firmly Rejects Prediction
Leading scientific bodies and experts are unanimous: predicting earthquakes with the kind of precision seen in the manga—a specific date, time, and location—is simply not possible. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), the country’s primary authority on seismic activity, has repeatedly and explicitly stated that current scientific knowledge does not allow for such predictions.
Officials lament that the public is being affected by baseless information in an era of modern science. Predicting complex natural systems like tectonic plate movements remains beyond our current technological capabilities. While scientists can identify areas of high risk and estimate probabilities over long periods, they cannot forecast the exact moment a quake will strike.
Japan’s Real Seismic Risk
It’s crucial to distinguish the unfounded fears driven by the manga from the very real and substantial seismic risk Japan faces. Located on the Pacific Ring of Fire, Japan experiences approximately 1,500 earthquakes annually, accounting for nearly one-fifth of the global total. The country has invested heavily in earthquake preparedness measures for decades.
A particularly significant concern is the Nankai Trough, a 560-mile oceanic trench off Japan’s southern coast. Geologists recognize earthquakes originating from this region as the potential “Big One” for Japan. A government panel report earlier this year assessed an 80% probability of a megaquake along the Nankai Trough occurring within the next 30 years. While this highlights a genuine, high-magnitude long-term threat with potential for catastrophic casualties (up to 298,000 in a worst-case scenario), this scientific assessment provides no basis for predicting a specific event date like July 5, 2025.
Tangible Impacts of Unfounded Fear
Despite the scientific consensus and official reassurances, the panic fueled by the manga has had noticeable real-world consequences. Japan’s thriving post-pandemic tourism industry, which saw record visitor numbers in April 2025 (3.9 million), experienced an unexpected downturn.
Reports indicate significant declines in travel bookings to Japan, particularly from East Asia. Data from travel firms showed year-on-year flight bookings from Hong Kong to Japan dropped by almost 50%, with cancellations reaching a staggering 83% in the weeks immediately preceding July 5, 2025. Two Hong Kong-based airlines reportedly cut flights to southern Japan due to lower passenger interest, and specific destinations like Tokushima and the Tottori prefecture in southwest Japan (an area mentioned in the prophecy) saw booking drops of nearly 50% from regions like Hong Kong. Economists estimate the panic could potentially result in financial losses for the tourism industry reaching up to ¥560 billion (approximately $3.9 billion).
Travel agencies attempted strategies like price reductions and offering earthquake insurance, but the fear persisted. Local officials, including the governor of Tottori prefecture, acknowledged the undeniable impact of the rumor on waning interest in visiting Japan and on public tranquility.
Author and Official Responses
Even the author, Ryo Tatsuki, has reportedly sought to temper the panic she unintentionally created. While not fully withdrawing her warning, she told a national newspaper that the July 5 prediction “may not happen” and has reportedly urged people not to take her visions too seriously, clarifying she is a storyteller, not a prophet. Her publisher has echoed that the predicted megaquake may not occur.
In response to the widespread anxiety, the Japanese government and the JMA have been proactive. Statements have emphasized the impossibility of date-specific predictions and urged the public to rely solely on official channels for information. The JMA director-general publicly expressed regret that people were being affected by baseless information. Experts like Professor Naoya Sekiya from the University of Tokyo have advised the public to focus on preparedness for potential disasters at any time, rather than succumbing to anxiety driven by unsupported prophecies.
Preparedness is Paramount, Not Panic
Given Japan’s inherent seismic vulnerability, concern about earthquakes is understandable and necessary. However, official bodies strongly urge the public to avoid “irrational actions driven by anxiety” stemming from unscientific rumors. The emphasis should remain on scientifically grounded preparedness measures – knowing what to do during an earthquake, having emergency supplies, and staying informed through official sources.
The JMA remains the definitive source for earthquake information and warnings within Japan. Internationally recognized bodies like the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the British Geological Survey (BGS), and the European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre (EMSC) also provide valuable data and expertise in their respective regions and globally. Relying on these authoritative sources is the most responsible approach to navigating seismic risks.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why can’t earthquakes be predicted precisely with current science?
Scientists worldwide agree that predicting earthquakes with exact dates, times, and locations is impossible. Earthquakes result from complex interactions within the Earth’s crust, which are not yet fully understood or measurable with the precision needed for forecasting specific events. While experts can identify high-risk areas and estimate long-term probabilities (like the Nankai Trough risk over 30 years), predicting the exact moment is beyond current capabilities. Relying on baseless predictions, such as those from a manga, is not supported by scientific knowledge.
Where can people find reliable information about earthquakes in Japan?
The most reliable source for earthquake information, warnings, and advisories in Japan is the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). The JMA monitors seismic activity continuously and issues official alerts based on scientific data. Other reputable international sources include the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the British Geological Survey (BGS), and the European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre (EMSC), which provide global seismic data and context, but the JMA is the primary authority for Japan-specific events. It is crucial to follow official guidance over social media rumors.
How has this manga prediction specifically affected travel to Japan?
The viral prediction from “The Future I Saw” manga, particularly the July 5, 2025 date, caused significant panic that directly impacted Japan’s tourism sector. Reports show a noticeable decline in bookings and increased cancellations, especially from East Asian countries like Hong Kong, Taiwan, China, and South Korea. Examples include a nearly 50% drop in Tottori prefecture bookings from Hong Kong, significant declines in Hong Kong-Japan flight bookings (up to 83% before the date), airlines cutting flights, and potential economic losses estimated around $3.9 billion for the industry.
Conclusion
The phenomenon surrounding Ryo Tatsuki’s manga and the July 5, 2025, earthquake prediction serves as a striking example of how fictional narratives, amplified by social media, can generate widespread, scientifically unfounded fear with real-world economic and social consequences. While Japan faces genuine, significant seismic risks, the timing of future major earthquakes, including the anticipated Nankai Trough event, cannot be predicted with precision. Experts strongly urge the public to prioritize preparedness based on reliable scientific knowledge and official advisories from bodies like the JMA, rather than succumbing to anxiety driven by baseless rumors and speculative prophecies.
References
- time.com
- www.travelandtourworld.com
- <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2025/07/02/in-japan-a-manga-artist-has-predicted-a-disaster-in-early-july-causing-a-drop-in-tourism67429234.html”>www.lemonde.fr
- www.newsx.com
- www.republicworld.com
